NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 12/21/22
Last night was a heartbreaker.
With our two totals cashed, Anaheim played Los Angeles to a scoreless first period, and it was even a manageable 2-1 deficit at the second intermission for the puckline. A few late goals ended all hope.
Tonight, we reclaim that hope with an even better situation.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers
Panthers ML (-142) - 2 Stars
You can tell the board isn't ideal if I've got a -142 moneyline in here, but I do like the Panthers quite a bit tonight.
These two teams lead the league in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes. Florida (3.68) checks in just above New Jersey (3.66). This game all comes down to defensive regression, though.
The Panthers are ceding 3.31 actual goals per 60 minutes, but their expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 is just 3.15. The Devils are the opposite. They're an elite defense in actual goals allowed (2.52), but the xGA per 60 minutes rate is a decent bit higher (2.66).
At home, Florida's defense might be just a tinge undervalued here, and I trust their star-studded offense -- with years of success in the bank -- over the upstart Devils in the long run. Our model expects them to win 66.2% of the time tonight against these 58.7% implied odds.
Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks +1.5 (-102) - 3 Stars
It's ugly, and I wouldn't blame a soul for not doing it, but I want to go back to the Ducks again.
They're the unrested squad here. John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz are both injured, and that means Anaheim will turn to either Lukas Dostal for a second straight night or Olle Eriksson Ek, who was just called up from the AHL with an ugly 4.94 GAA in the minors. It's heinous to take Anaheim here, but I'm going to.
Marc-Andre Fleury hasn't earned the lofty spread that this game will have by puck drop. His -5.52 goals saved above expectations (GSAx) is the 11th-worst mark in the league. Even if he's unrested, Dostal (1.02 GSAx) will be a significant advantage.
Once word about Anaheim's goalie is official, this line should climb to 2 or 2.5 goals. If it doesn't, that might even be a better inclination to take the Ducks. It's a huge statement if oddsmakers are willing to leave the number here given that 86% of bets and 97% of the money are pouring in on the Wild.
