NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 12/27/22
Off of the holiday break, we've got an 11-game slate bursting with betting opportunities.
However, our model isn't really digging any particular line today, so I had to make some executive decisions amongst the two-star crowd. What are we targeting today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets
Jets ML (+102) - 2 Stars
The totals today to follow are shaky, but this is the play o' the day. There's an absolute canyon between the two netminders in this one.
Minnesota's Marc-Andre Fleury has struggled to -4.57 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), and he's on the road. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck gets to slide between his home pipes, and Hellebuyck has been sensational in 2022, posting 17.46 GSAx. That's second in all of hockey.
It's why I -- and the model -- look at goaltending metrics in addition to skater metrics. In terms of expected-goals-for percentages (xGF%), the Wild (53.4%) are a good bit ahead of the Jets (49.9%) between the creases.
Overall, our model pegs the Jets to win this one 56.7% of the time as the underdog. I couldn't back that handicap with more conviction.
Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes
Over 5.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
A 5.5-goal total is always a potential trap, but the path to an over here is obvious.
Arizona is awful defensively, ceding the third-most expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (3.66). Yes, Karel Vejmelka has been outstanding (14.02 GSAx), but he's been bombarded at will.
The Avalanche are getting healthy, too. Last year's champions welcomed Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin back to the lineup before the break, so they should ascend from their current offensive rank. They've posted the 12th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.01).
Colorado's stingy defense (2.77 xGA per 60) -- headed by Alexandar Georgiev (7.79 GSAx) -- will be a tough nut for the Coyotes to crack, but they really just need a goal or two to aid this total. Most likely, the Avs will do the heavy lifting.
It should speak volumes that our under-friendly, value-based model likes the over here. It sees this one logging six-plus goals 58.4% of the time against these 52.9% implied odds.
Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames
Under 6.5 (+108) - 2 Stars
Can one of the excellent keepers stand on their head? That's really the question to take a contrarian under in Calgary.
The Flames have Jacob Markstrom, who finished second in the Vezina Trophy race a year ago. His 2022 season has been fine (2.46 GSAx), but he'll need to bring his top-shelf stuff to thwart a potent Edmonton offense.
Personally, I think it's more likely that Stuart Skinner answers the bell for us here. Not only is the Oilers' netminder having a better year (9.73 GSAx), but he's also tasked with a Flames offense that's only posted the 14th-most expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes so far (3.15).
These two squads played multiple contests last year with at least 13 total goals scored, so it's no surprise 66% of the bets are on the over in this spot. Like the model, I prefer the under.
Specifically, it sees this one with six or fewer tallies 54.0% of the time. That's a no-brainer wager against these 48.1% implied odds.
