NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 12/29/22
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jordan Binnington ($6,600): The St. Louis Blues are big -280 moneyline favorites against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks tonight. While the Blues and Binnington haven't been amazing this season, they are better than Chicago and looking to snap a three-game losing streak. Due to the inconsistency from the netminder and the team, Binnington is only $6,600, which gives him the lowest goalie salary on the slate.
The Blues are the third-largest moneyline favorite, giving us a sizeable difference between Binnington's salary and the implied win expectation. With the Blackhawks scoring a league-worst 1.60 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, he has a soft matchup to get back on track and pick up the win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Tage Thompson ($10,600): Thompson and the Buffalo Sabres have a 3.57 implied goal total and are taking on the Detroit Red Wings, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Sabres are playing their first game in 10 days and will look to keep their red-hot offense going. They come in scoring 3.01 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
Thompson has been downright elite for the Sabres all season and has somehow turned things up to a new level recently. Over his last 10 games, Thompson has 12 goals, 10 assists, and 45 shots on goal, which is even more than Connor McDavid's last 10 games of 19 NHL points and 37 shots on goal.
Thompson is a high-floor, high-ceiling type of player, and he's perfect for any format tonight.
Auston Matthews ($10,100): Matthews has a super soft matchup against the Arizona Coyotes, bringing us a great narrative tonight. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 3.69 implied goal total, and that shouldn't be a surprise because the Yotes are allowing 2.83 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the sixth-worst in the league. They are a weak defense, and we will continue to attack them all season.
When it comes to the narrative, Matthews is playing in his home state of Arizona. Has he scored in each of the last two games he played in Arizona? Yes. It's no doubt a fun narrative, but more importantly, it's just a great matchup.
The Leafs are scoring 2.72 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season (10th-most), and Matthews is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. A great offense with a great goal-scorer versus a weak defense is always a spot to attack, especially with a little narrative sprinkled on top.
Value Skaters
Sam Gagner ($4,700): The Winnipeg Jets are hit hard by some injuries right now, and that has shifted their forward lines a good amount and opened up some value. Gagner is now on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which is a rather large role for a player under $5,000. He has a modest 4 NHL points and 20 shots on goal over his last 10 games, but with an increased role, those numbers should be on the rise.
The Jets have a 3.51 implied goal total tonight and are taking on the Vancouver Canucks, who are allowing 3.10 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-worst in the league. It's a great matchup for a player with an expanded offensive role.
Nick Bonino ($4,400): The San Jose Sharks offer a good bit of value tonight, and that starts with Bonino, who is filling up the stat sheet. With 6 NHL points in his last 10 games, Bonino is doing a bit more than I expected, but what's more important for his fantasy value is the fact he has 19 shots on goal and 15 blocked shots in that span.
Bringing a bit of production in multiple areas is always good to see for a role player on the third forward line and the second power-play unit. That production should continue tonight with the Sharks carrying a 3.54 implied goal total at home to take on the Philadelphia Flyers.
