NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 2/1/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Linus Ullmark ($8,500): The Boston Bruins are -128 road favorites against the Toronto Maple Leafs, where the over/under is set at 6.0. The Bruins are on a three-game losing streak, which is very notable because this is the first time all season they have lost more than one game in a row. That's how dominant they've been all year, and I'm expecting them to bounce back with a win tonight.
For the season, the Bruins are allowing 1.76 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which tops the league. This is shown with Ullmark allowing two goals or fewer in 6 of his last 10 starts and three goals or fewer in all of his last 10 starts. The Bruins are far better than what they've shown in recent games, and it should put Ullmark in a spot to pick up the win.
Tage Thompson ($10,000): Thompson will be good to go for tonight's matchup after dealing with a minor injury, and he always carries a high fantasy ceiling. The Buffalo Sabres are hosting the Carolina Hurricanes with a 6.5 over/under in a game that could feature plenty of scoring. Over the last two weeks, both teams are in the league's top 10 for the most goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is great for offense.
Thompson is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which has allowed him to rack up 11 NHL points, 33 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots in his last 10 games. Look to stack him with Alex Tuch ($8,400) and Jeff Skinner ($7,900) for that full ice-time correlation between the forward lines and the power play.
Brad Marchand ($8,000): While Marchand is known for his antics on the ice, he brings plenty of offensive potential and has a great matchup tonight. Over the last two weeks, the Maple Leafs are allowing 2.07 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-best in the league. That's really good! However, if we look at their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that same time, they are up at 2.90 goals allowed, which is the 13th-worst in the league.
That is a noticeable difference and points to a team that is due for some serious regression on defense. This is the spot we want to jump on given the scoring potential we see from the Bruins' offense. Speaking of their offense, they are scoring 3.03 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, which is the second-best in the league.
With Marchand on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, he should be in a spot to rack up plenty of fantasy points tonight.
Seth Jarvis ($5,200): The Hurricanes lead the slate with a 3.50 implied goal total and are always a good spot to look for some offensive production. After a thrilling 5-4 come-from-behind win last night after being down 4-1, the Canes and Sabres are set for another good fantasy matchup.
As noted above, both teams are in the top 10 for the most goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last two weeks. Both teams like to push the pace on offense, giving plenty of fantasy production for all involved. Jarvis is on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 4 NHL points, 17 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games.