NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 2/10/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Samsonov ($8,200): The Toronto Maple Leafs have their first game since the All-Star break and are on the road against the Columbus Blue Jackets in what should be a winnable matchup. I don't expect this to be a clean win for Samsonov, but the Maple Leafs are the better team and should be able to pick up the win.
This is due in large part to how bad the Blue Jackets' defense is, but combine that with the Maple Leafs' strong offense for a solid projection. Over the last three weeks, the Blue Jackets are allowing the ninth-most (2.92) goals and have the 10th-worst (61.10) Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
During that same time, the Maple Leafs are scoring 2.67 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 13th best in the league. They are actually underproducing according to their expected goals scored (xGF), which is up at 3.47. They have a solid offense that should be on the path to scoring more, putting Samsonov in a spot to come away with the win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Sidney Crosby ($8,500): The Pittsburgh Penguins have a slate-high 3.91 implied goal total and should be one of the chalkier teams on the slate. They have an elite matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, who have been one of the worst defensive teams all season, and that won't be changing anytime soon.
This season, the Ducks are allowing 3.41 goals and a 66.13 Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are the worst in the league. When they are on the slate, you stack against them; it's as simple as that.
Crosby is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 13 NHL points, 27 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games. Look to stack him with Jake Guentzel and Rickard Rakell.
William Nylander ($8,800): With a 3.88 implied goal total, the Maple Leafs should be another high-priority team for many tonight. As noted above, the Blue Jackets are struggling on defense this season, and the Maple Leafs could be producing even more goals. This is a very clear spot to be targeting tonight -- especially with how well Nylander has been playing this season.
He comes in with 12 NHL points and 37 shots on goal over his last 10 games, providing plenty of shot volume on a nightly basis. Nylander is a pure goal-scorer and is one of the few players on this small four-game slate that is a legitimate threat for a multi-goal outing tonight.
Value Skaters
Barrett Hayton ($4,100): By no means are the Arizona Coyotes a good hockey team, but they have a good matchup tonight against the Chicago Blackhawks. Both teams have their eyes on the draft and have been playing no defense this season. The Blackhawks are allowing 3.00 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
Hayton is under $5K while playing on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. That is a massive offensive role for a player that isn't high-salaried and happens to have a great matchup in front of him. He has only 4 NHL points in his last 10 games, but 24 shots on goal and 6 blocked shots are solid peripheral numbers.
Kirill Marchenko ($5,700): I'm expecting a higher-scoring game between the Blue Jackets and Maple Leafs, which means we want to find some value options. Marchenko is now on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 4 goals, 27 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
He's a bit of a boom or bust option with him primarily being a goal-scorer, but that is the type of player that brings upside in a higher-scoring game.
