NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 2/22/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Jake Oettinger ($8,500): The Dallas Stars are huge -430 moneyline favorites against the Chicago Blackhawks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. To put things simply, the Stars are underproducing right now, and the Blackhawks are overproducing. The Stars lead the Central Division despite a four-game losing streak, and the Blackhawks are on a three-game winning streak but have the third-fewest points in the entire NHL.
The Stars are simply the better team and are due for a win, which will likely be led by Oettinger in net. He comes in win 19.3 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which is the sixth-best in the league. Oettinger is an elite goalie, and with a high win equity tonight, he is the safest option for goalies.
High-Salaried Skaters
Jason Robertson ($9,300): With the Stars being -430 moneyline favorites, we see them carrying a slate-high, 3.91 implied goal total. The Stars' offense has been slow on this four-game losing streak, posting two goals or fewer in each game. Despite that, Robertson still has 4 NHL points and 15 shots on goal in his last five outings. That's good but not great production if we're being honest.
The Blackhawks should help the Stars get back on track on offense since they are allowing 3.31 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks, which is the fifth-worst in the league. There's no doubt the Stars' offense is in a bit of a slump right now, but with a soft matchup on home ice tonight, they -- and Robertson -- should be primed for a big game.
Tyler Toffoli ($7,400): The Calgary Flames have a 3.49 implied goal total against the Arizona Coyotes, a matchup that lead to plenty of offense for them. Toffoli has been super consistent as of late with 9 NHL points, 34 shots on goal, and 4 blocked shots in his last 10 games. His time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit should make him one of the more popular players tonight -- especially considering his relatively affordable salary.
The Flames have taken their offense to a new level recently and come in with a 73.59 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) and 3.22 goals scored over the last three weeks, both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. Those are both in the top 10 of the league during that time and set them up for another big offensive night.
The Coyotes are allowing 2.72 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, which is the 10th worst in the league. This should allow Toffoli and the Flames to continue to reach for their fantasy ceiling tonight.
Value Skaters
Neal Pionk ($5,600): Pionk and the Winnipeg Jets have a 2.73 implied goal total against the New York Islanders tonight. While this matchup may not have massive scoring, Pionk still provides plenty of point-per-dollar value tonight.
Over his last 10 games, Pionk comes in with 5 NHL points, 15 shots on goal, and 20 blocked shots. He's the defender on the second power-play unit for the Jets, so there's a path to offensive upside for him on top of the solid work he does in other categories.
Kyle Palmieri ($5,100): The Islanders are dealing with a few injuries right now, and that offers some offensive opportunities for other players. Palmieri is on the second forward line and the first power-play, entering with 7 NHL points and 24 shots on goal over his last 10 games. The Islanders have quietly started to generate some real offense recently and are now scoring 2.98 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 13th-best mark in the league over the last three weeks.
