NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/9/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Frederik Andersen ($7,700): I'm flat-out shocked by Andersen's salary tonight, and it should make him one of the most popular goalies in all formats. The Carolina Hurricanes are massive -410 home favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers, which makes them the slate's largest favorite. However, Andersen is the 11th-most expensive goalie in terms of salary. That differential is massive, and the win equity Andersen has simply doesn't match his salary.
The Canes continue to be elite on defense, and over the last month, they are allowing 1.96 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best in the league. During that same time, the Flyers are scoring a paltry 1.71 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst. This is an elite matchup for Andersen, and his salary simply doesn't reflect that.
High Salaried Skaters
Mika Zibanejad ($8,700): The New York Rangers come in with a slate-high 3.93 implied goal total against the Montreal Canadiens in a matchup that offers plenty of offensive upside. The Canadiens are a team we've attacked all season due to their lack of defense, which is actually getting worse as the season has gone on. For the year, they are allowing 2.88 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, and over the last month, they are allowing 2.97 goals in the same situations.
That's not a massive difference, but still, it's great to see a defense that is actually even weaker now. This offers the Rangers a chance to reach for their fantasy ceiling with their new-look offense. Adding Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko has led to some changes in their offensive units. Zibanejad is now on the second power-play unit while still skating on the first forward line.
Over his last 10 games, Zibanejad has 12 NHL points, 24 shots on goal, and 10 blocked shots. With this soft matchup, Zibanejad has a multi-point performance waiting to happen.
Jack Hughes ($10,100): As Dexter Morgan says, "Tonight's the night. And it's going to happen, again and again. It has to happen." Jack Hughes is going to score a goal tonight.
That's my take for tonight's slate, and it's not too much of a surprise with the New Jersey Devils rocking a 3.47 implied goal total against the Washington Capitals. I've said it before, but this is just not the Capitals' year. They are struggling in many areas, and over the last month, they have allowed 3.49 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league.
On the Devils' side of things, they continue to have an elite offense and are pouring in 3.06 goals and a 65.14 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are in the top 10 over the last month. We essentially have a matchup of two teams on the opposite ends of the offensive and defensive spectrums, which all points to the Devils tonight.
Over his last four games, Hughes has 16 shots on goal, 2 assists, and no goals. He's a high-volume shooter on the second forward line and the first power-play unit but hasn't found the back of the net recently. He's due for some positive regression, and with this favorable matchup, he should be able to light the lamp.
Jason Robertson ($9,500): Robertson and the Dallas Stars have a 3.59 implied goal total against the Buffalo Sabres in what should be a high-scoring game. The Sabres have a great offense, but they also have a horrible defense, which can lead to back-and-forth games with plenty of goals.
Over the last month, the Sabres are allowing 3.53 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league, while Dallas is 16th at 2.79 goals allowed. Defense might be optional tonight, and that should point to Robertson having a big offensive game.
In his last 10 games, Robertson has 11 NHL points and 42 shots on goal while skating on the first forward line and the first power-play unit.
Value Skaters
Dmitry Orlov ($5,500): Orlov has been on fire since being traded to the Boston Bruins and has taken over the role as the defender on the first power-play unit. In his five games with the Bruins, Orlov has nine NHL points, eight shots on goal, and five blocked shots. He's already been incredibly productive and now assumes a larger offensive role.
Tonight's matchup against the Edmonton Oilers has a 6.5 over/under and sees the league's two highest-scoring teams going head-to-head. This is an explosive fantasy matchup waiting to happen, and you want some exposure to this game.
Samuel Girard ($4,800): The Colorado Avalanche have gone through some ups and downs this season, but right now, they are up -- way, way up. Over the last month, the Avalanche are scoring 3.71 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which tops the league by a decent margin. The next closest team is at 3.44 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Needless to say, it's a good idea to get some of their players in your lineups. Girard offers some good point-per-dollar value and comes in with 10 NHL points, 13 shots on goal, and 17 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
