NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/10/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,100): The Florida Panthers are enormous -490 home favorites against the Chicago Blackhawks in what sets up to be a very lopsided matchup. Over the last month, we've seen the Panthers' defense and goaltending take a step forward, making them one of the more consistent teams in the league.
For the entire season, the Panthers allow 2.48 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 15th in the league. That's nothing to write home about, but over the last month that has improved to 1.98 goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best in the league. This should line up nicely against Chicago, who are scoring 2.44 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month (11th-lowest in the league).
High Salaried Skaters
Matthew Tkachuk ($9,500): With the Panthers being massive favorites, we see them with a 4.31 implied goal total -- a mark their offense can easily reach and exceed. Over the last month, the Panthers have a whopping 72.36 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which tops the league. With that, they are scoring 2.91 goals in the same situations, which is the 13th-best in the league.
That's a relatively large difference between Corsi For and actual goals scored, which means they should see positive regression soon. If we glance at their expected goals scored (xGF) over this last month, they should be up at 3.64 goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which would be the best in the league.
On the other side, the Blackhawks are terrible on defense this season and sit as the fifth-worst (3.05) team in the league when it comes to Goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. This puts the Panthers' offense in a spot to reach their full potential of scoring, something they have been a bit lower on over the last month.
Tkachuk is a main driver of their offense on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 8 NHL points and 42 shots on goal over his last 10 games. If the Panthers are going to hit this 4.31 implied goal total, Tkachuk will likely have a hand in it.
Nazem Kadri ($7,000): The Calgary Flames have to keep piling up wins if they want a shot at a Wild Card spot, and as -400 home favorites against the Anaheim Ducks, this should be a winnable matchup. The Flames are another team underproducing goals currently, and with the league's worst defense on the other side, it could be time for the floodgates to open. To be specific, the Ducks are allowing 3.41 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Over the last month, the Flames are scoring 2.58 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 19th in the league. Compare that to their xGF rate of 3.14 per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations; they'd be a top-five team with that mark.
Kadri is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit with no goals over his last nine games, but he has 28 shots on goal in that time. A strong shot volume, a solid offensive role, and a great matchup should put him in a spot to finally find the back of the net.
Value Skaters
Jakob Pelletier ($4,000): Pelletier is a young player who only has 19 NHL games under his belt this season with 7 NHL points and 38 shots on goal. Those aren't massive numbers by any means, but as noted above with Kadri, this is an elite matchup for the Flames' offense. On top of that, Pelletier is now on the first forward line and the first power-play unit -- a rather surprising role for a player that has an affordable salary.
The Flames' offense is due for a breakout, and his offensive role is too great to pass up on a small two-game slate.
Lukas Reichel ($4,500): I wrote Reichel the other day and we've already seen his salary jump from $3K to $4.5K. This is simply about the offensive opportunity he has in relation to his very affordable salary. Just like Pelleiter above, we see Reichel on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Blackhawks.
He picked up an assist in his most recent game, and as long as he maintains that role, he's going to be worth a spot in your lineups at this salary.
