NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 3/13/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Alexandar Georgiev ($8,400): The Colorado Avalanche are -275 road favorites against the Montreal Canadiens and are looking to pick up an easier win tonight. This is a clear case of the Avs simply being the better team in all areas on the ice, and it puts Georgiev in a spot for plenty of fantasy value.
Over his last 10 starts, Georgiev has allowed three goals or fewer eight times, picking up the win in seven of those games. He's been a consistent option all season and owns a clip of 14.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which is the seventh-best in the league. The Avs should not be losing this game, and Georgiev is a primary DFS target on this three-game slate.
High Salaried Skaters
Mikko Rantanen ($9,200): With the Avs as -275 favorites, they are carrying a slate-high 3.93 implied total. Over the last month, the Avalanche are scoring a whopping 3.70 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which tops the league. During that same time, the Canadiens are allowing 2.93 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-most in the league. We also see them allowing a 65.94 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed), which is the second-most in the league. Long story short -- Montreal is a terrible defense.
Rantanen is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which has helped him to a career-high 42 goals this season. Despite all of that offensive success, Rantanen has just one goal over his last five games. With a favorable matchup on tap against the Habs, Rantanen should be able to find the back of the net.
Mitch Marner ($8,500): Marner has been downright amazing over his last 10 games, and with a small slate tonight, he's not a player you should be fading. Over these last 10 games, Marner has 18 NHL points, 27 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots. That level of production can go head-to-head with nearly any player in the league except for Connor McDavid.
Tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 3.85 implied total against the Buffalo Sabres, who continue to struggle on defense. Over the last month, the Sabres are allowing a league-high 3.58 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. This game features a 6.5-goal over/under. Playing in a game withj that type of offensive expectation, Marner and the Leafs' should be a popular option tonight.
Value Skaters
JJ Peterka ($4,300): Peterka skates on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for the Sabres, all while being just $4,300. As noted, this game has a 6.5 total, and getting low-salary exposure to a high-event game can bring plenty of value to your lineups.
While the Sabres are struggling on defense, they are still pouring in the goals on offense. Over the last month, they are netting 3.33 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-most in the league. That type of offense brings plenty of fantasy upside for all involved. Peterka has 4 NHL points and 20 shots on goal in his last 10 games.
Evgeni Dadonov ($4,400): The Dallas Stars have a 3.33 implied total against the Seattle Kraken in what should be another high-scoring game. Over the last month, both teams are in the top 13 of the league for Goals Scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations while also both being in the bottom 10 of the league for Goals Allowed.
All offense and no defense should be the theme of this game, and that means plenty of fantasy points. Dadonov is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 7 NHL points, 18 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
