NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/17/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Darcy Kuemper ($8,200): The Washington Capitals are -164 home favorites against the St. Louis Blues in what should be a winnable matchup for Kuemper. This is partly due to the matchup against the Blues -- and what that really offers for the Capitals' offense. Over the last month, the Blues are allowing 3.57 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league.
This should allow the Capitals' offense to pour in support and power Kuemper to a win. This is not to say Kuemper isn't good, too. Over his last five starts, he's allowed three goals or fewer four times. The combination of decent consistency -- and a plus matchup for the offense -- is what we're looking at tonight.
High Salaried Skaters
Tage Thompson ($9,900): The Buffalo Sabres are rocking a 3.47 implied goal total tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers, and Thompson is primed for a goal. The Sabres continue to have a very strong offense and over the last month, they are scoring 3.27 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-best in the league.
Thompson is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 9 NHL points and 35 shots on goal over his last 10 games. However, Thompson hasn't scored a goal in his last six games despite a strong shot volume and a prominent offensive role.
With the Flyers allowing 2.90 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month, Thompson is in a spot to break this goal drought and find the back of the net.
Alex Ovechkin ($8,600): While the Capitals are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoffs, they aren't completely eliminated yet. Much of that has to do with the fact their offense has pushed things to a new level. Over the last month, they are scoring 3.35 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-best in the league.
That's noticeably higher than their rate of 2.62 for the entire season, and that's giving them a fighting chance at making the playoffs. As noted above, the Blues are struggling on defense to the tune of 3.57 goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, giving us two teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum tonight.
Of course, Ovi is on the top forward line and the top power-play unit, putting him in a spot for plenty of offensive upside against a bad defense.
Cam Fowler ($5,400): When it comes to the Anaheim Ducks hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets, we're dealing with two of the absolute worst teams in the league. They are both in the bottom three of the league for the most goals allowed per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season, presenting some offensive potential.
We may not see scoring not because the offenses are elite, but rather, it's because the defenses are so bad. This presents fantasy potential to many of the players involved, and I'm looking at Fowler for some value. He's the defender on the first power-play unit for Anaheim, coming in with 11 NHL points, 11 shots on goal, and 15 blocked shots over his last 10 games.
Jack Roslovic ($4,300): Roslovic is the center on the second forward line and the second power-play unit for the Blue Jackets, who are in this potentially interesting fantasy matchup against the Ducks. He's under $5K and holds a pretty strong offensive role for the Blue Jackets.
Over his last 10 games, Roslovic has 6 NHL points, 24 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots. He has solid point-per-dollar value tonight, and finding the score sheet wouldn't be a surprise with the weak Anaheim D on the other side.