NHL Betting Guide: Friday 5/12/23

There are only two games on Friday night, one of which is an elimination game. Which game has the best spot to look for traditional betting markets?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Under 6.5 (-102)

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to fight off elimination and survive another day with a win over the Florida Panthers tonight.

Down 3-1 in the series, the Maple Leafs have their backs against the wall and will be turning to Joseph Woll in net tonight. He started for Toronto in Game 4 and was able to come away with a very impressive 2-1 victory.

Woll saw very limited action during the regular season but impressed with his 0.821 Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes, which was the highest among all the Maple Leafs' goalies. Granted, it was a small seven-game sample size, but it's impressive nonetheless. That trend continues to be true in the playoffs, where he has outperformed Ilya Samsonov thus far.

On the other side, Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, continues to perform well with 6.7 Goals Saved Above Expected, which is the highest of any goalie remaining in the playoffs. With both goalies in top form right now, it should lead to a lower-scoring game, making under 6.5 goals the spot to look at tonight.

numberFire's model likes the under tonight with a two-star rating, giving it a 56.05% likelihood of hitting for an 11.0% return.