Champions League Betting: Why Juventus and Liverpool Are the Best Bets to Win It All

The Underdogs

Manchester United +1600
Tottenham +2500
Ajax +3100
Porto +9500

Manchester United

Admittedly, you've got to squint pretty hard to find a way that any of these four teams win the title. All of them will have to beat a better side in three straight rounds as the draw didn't do any of these guys any favors. But you never know in the knockout rounds, so let's get to squintin'.

Listen, Manchester United might get mauled by Barcelona. The thought of Messi running at Chris Smalling and Victor Lindelöf is horrifying from a United perspective. At one point, about 30 minutes in to United's Round-of-16 second-leg matchup at PSG, the Red Devils had 13% possession. Yes, 13% possession. But United were up 2-1 at that point, weathering the PSG storm and scoring twice despite barely having the ball.

The Red Devils have been pretty adept at playing on the counter since Ole Gunnar Solskjær took over, with Paul Pogba's passing and Marcus Rashford's blistering pace making United very dangerous in quick transitions.

Being good without the ball will come in handy versus Barcelona, because United figure to see very little of it. Again, United are big underdogs against Barcelona, though they do have the best title odds among the four underdogs -- by a healthy margin, at that. But if the Red Devils can get healthy and put together a vintage European night showing at Old Trafford in the first leg, giving themselves a fighting chance at the Camp Nou, you never know.

After all, since Solskjær got the job, United have won at PSG, Arsenal and Chelsea in cup competitions.

If they climb the mountain that is Barca, United would likely see Liverpool in the semifinals, and that's not a brutal spot for the Red Devils. This United group has done a pretty good job thwarting the Reds' high-powered attack in recent years, though then-manager Jose Mourinho's who-cares-about-attacking tactics in some matches at Anfield deserve some of the credit.

Over their last three league matches at Anfield, United have secured a pair of 0-0 draws while losing the other (this year), 3-1. In Manchester, Liverpool haven't won at Old Trafford in EPL play since 2014, with United holding a 3-2 advantage via the combined EPL scores over the past three seasons, including a 0-0 draw this year.

If United got to the final by toppling PSG, Barca and Liverpool, they'd have to believe they could beat whoever they came up against in a one-off match. United winning it all is a long shot, but among the four underdog sides, they have the best combination of talent and counter-attacking ability, plus Solskjær has some kind of unexplainable magic working right now.

Ajax

After knocking off Real Madrid, Ajax have to be flying high. They would've had a great chance to get to the semis if they drew Spurs, United or Porto, but the draw wasn't kind to them, giving the Dutch side a route where they'll likely have to beat the champions of Italy and the current leaders in England just to get to the final.

It's hard to judge what Ajax have done in the Eredivisie since it's, for the most part, a step or four below the level of play in the UCL. They've been a high-flying attacking side in domestic-league play, though, netting a whopping 88 goals in 25 league matches.

We also know that Ajax have three players -- Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt and Hakim Ziyech -- who would get into almost any team in Europe and will likely do just that this summer, with de Jong's move to Barcelona already settled.

Against Real, Ajax cemented their status as one of Europe's best attacking teams, racking up 35 shots (15 on goal) over the two legs. Even in the first leg versus Madrid, a match they lost 2-1, Ajax had more possession (51%) and more shots (19) than Real Madrid did. So while it was an upset than Ajax knocked out Los Blancos, their performance over the two legs showed that it wasn't a fluke. And it wasn't just the bottom-line results that were good, Ajax's free-flowing, fearless style was on full display.

If they're willing to play with that kind of courage on the ball at the Bernabéu in a Champions League second leg, they're going to play their way at any stadium, in any situation. And let's not forget, this Ajax side drew twice with Bayern Munich in the group stage, so they've shown on a few occasions that they can go blow for blow with the big boys.

A likely semifinal matchup with Manchester City would be tough for Ajax, and in a lot of ways, it would be two very similar styles squaring off, though City would be doing it with better players at a lot of the positions. And in the final, Ajax would face another stiff test, and they'd again be a significant underdog.

Ajax are obviously a hefty underdog to win the whole thing. They've already overachieved by getting this far. But this group knows they'll likely be split up this summer -- it's the Ajax model -- so this is their one chance to join the list of club legends and go deep in the UCL.

As we said earlier, if you can win 4-1 at the Bernabéu, you can get a result anywhere, and even though the draw was very unkind to Ajax -- giving them a probable path of Juve, City and Barca/Liverpool -- their title odds didn't fall that much compared to where they were before the draw (3.8% implied probability to 3.1%).

Don't put any pink slips on it, but toss down a couple bucks on Ajax and cheer on one of Europe's most exciting sides.