Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 7
We have six games in the books in the EPL this season, and Watford still remain in a top-four spot. But how much longer can they maintain this form? With a road match at Arsenal this week, we could find out the answer to that question on Saturday.
Using Paddy Power as the source for lines, let's take a look at some bets you should zero in on this week.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from Paddy Power, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.
Arsenal vs Watford
Watford +1 (7/4)
Watford are still getting no respect from the bookmakers despite their hot start to the season. Overall, Watford is 4W-1D-1L with a +5 goal difference, and they currently rank fourth in WhoScored.com’s team ratings. Yes, they have cooled off a little bit since their 4-0-0 start, but even in their loss to Manchester United, they played well (outshot United, 14-9). Then last week, they were leading Fulham for 76 minutes until a late equalizer helped force a draw, so it is not as if Watford have completely fallen off the past two weeks despite earning just one point.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have won four straight league games against poor competition, but they have not looked convincing in the wins. Three of Arsenal’s victories on this winning streak have come against teams in the bottom four in the table, while their other win has come against 12th-place Everton, who outshot the Gunners, 10-9.
Arsenal are clearly more talented than Watford, but the Hornets are playing better at the moment. Given how both teams have looked early on this season, getting Watford at almost 2/1 odds to cover a +1.0 spread against Arsenal seems like too good of a bet to pass up.
Cardiff vs Burnley
Burnley to Win - Draw no Bet (11/10)
Cardiff were promoted to the Premier League for this season, and although it has been only a six-game sample size, it appears they may not be cut out for this level. Cardiff are currently tied for last place at 0-2-4 with a -14 goal differential. They have endured a difficult schedule recently, having faced Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal, but prior to that, they played out back-to-back 0-0 draws against Newcastle and Huddersfield in games in which their opponents saw red cards.
In short, Cardiff does not seem to be a threat to beat anyone in the EPL the way they are currently playing.
Burnley are also off to a tough start at 1-1-4, but they seemed to get back on track in their 4-0 beatdown over Bournemouth last weekend. Unlike Cardiff, this Burnley team has a history of success in the EPL, finishing seventh in the league last season. Even if Burnley are not as good as they were last year, they are certainly better than Cardiff.
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +1 (8/13)
Crystal Palace to Win - Draw no Bet (5/4)
Bournemouth currently ranks ahead of Crystal Palace in the EPL table, but Palace have played at a much higher level, according to the WhoScored.com team ratings, as they rank seven places ahead of Bournemouth by WhoScored's numbers. Bournemouth have three wins this season, two which came against teams in the bottom four in the table, and their most recent result was a 4-0 blowout loss to give Burnley their first win of the season.
Crystal Palace are the road side in this matchup, but Palace have been a force away from home this year. In league play, Palace are 2-0-1 away from home, and they’ve also picked up two away wins in the League Cup (against Swansea and West Brom). Given that Palace are seemingly unfazed on the road and the fact that they are in better form than Bournemouth, it would seem logical that Palace should be able to at least muster a draw from this match.
