3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 9
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, October 19th
|Watford at Tottenham|
|Newcastle at Chelsea|
|Southampton at Wolves|
|Burnley at Leicester City|
|Norwich at Bournemouth|
|Brighton at Aston Villa|
|Manchester City at Crystal Palace|
The ninth main slate of the season features three big-six sides in Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City. Manchester City is the largest favorite on the slate with an implied win probability of 81.8%, per FanDuel Sportsbook, on the road against Crystal Palace. Chelsea is close behind them with an implied win probability of 77.8% at home against Newcastle, followed by Tottenham with an implied win probability of 71.4% at home against Watford.
Of the non-big-six sides, Leicester City is the largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 63.6% at home against Burnley. Bournemouth is close behind them with an implied win probability of 58.3% at home against Norwich, followed by Wolves with an implied win probability of 53.6% at home against Southampton. Aston Villa rounds out the slate as slight home favorites in a pick-em against Brighton.
With three elite sides in action and three more clear favorites, this slate if full of both expensive and cost-effective options in good spots. Of the elite sides, ownership will likely be lowest on Tottenham, as public confidence in Spurs is near an all-time low for recent years, and rightfully so. In general, ownership is likely to be lower on players in the middle of the price range, as the plethora of available stars could lead to the masses going with a stars-and-scrubs approach.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Willian, MID/FWD, Chelsea
FanDuel Salary: $15
It wasn't that long ago that Willian was a consistent performer for Chelsea and regularly carrying high levels of ownership. However, he had fallen off over the end of last season, and that carried over to this year. Through three games, he had played just 55 total minutes and scored a combined 2.6 FanDuel points. However, since the middle of September, Willian has started four straight league games for Chelsea and played the full 90 in all of them.
In his first two starts, he managed just a combined 7.8 points against Wolves and Liverpool, but in his last two, he has found his footing and produced FanDuel point totals of 34.5 and 19.9. He is involved in dead-ball situations and has the second-highest share of opportunities from them on the team, behind only Mason Mount.
Willian's price doesn't reflect his recent output and his history of production in the league. He certainly won't fly completely under the radar, but on a slate with several favored sides in good spots, he will likely go under-owned as the public opts to get their exposure to Chelsea through young stars Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham.
Josh King, MID/FWD, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $15
King is another attack-minded player with a history of production in the Premier League. He has been inconsistent this season, with two games with over 30 FanDuel points in his last four games and two with fewer than 7, but his playing time has been steady. He has started and played at least 89 minutes in 7 of Bournemouth's 8 matches this season.
With the number of options available, King is likely to go under-owned due to his inconsistency, which makes him a great play for large-field tournaments. Bournemouth has the highest implied goal total of any non-big-six side on the slate, even higher than Leicester City, who is larger favorites.
Norwich's road struggles have been mentioned ad nauseam in this piece since the start of the season, and they make an appearance again this week. Norwich is winless in four road games this campaign and is allowing an average of 2.5 goals per game. Bournemouth has 7 goals in 4 home matches this season, the seventh most in the Premier League and the third most of the non-big-six sides. They should find success in the final third this weekend.
Roberto Pereyra, MID/FWD, Watford
FanDuel Salary: $9
Tottenham has been awful. Watford has been awful. Both teams would take a redo on this season if it was offered. This weekend, Tottenham's failings are likely to be forgiven because they are facing Watford, but the same thinking should apply to the Hornets' outlook as they face a Spurs side that just lost 3-0 to Brighton.
At this point, it's clear Watford isn't who we (I) thought they were coming into the season, but they are certainly still capable of catching a slumping Tottenham off guard.
Despite facing a big-six side in Tottenham, Watford has a higher implied goal total than Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Southampton. Tottenham has been a far better side at home but has still conceded goals to Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Southampton on home soil. On Watford's side, there are no positive takeaways from their four away matches this season, four games in which they managed to score only a single goal, but at a price of just $9, Pereyra doesn't even need a goal to return value.
While Watford has been miserable in the final third, Pereyra has still been creating chances with relative consistency. He has four chances created in his last two matches and had his best game of the season against another big-six side in Arsenal back in September.
The bottom line is neither of these teams has much going for them at the moment, but that thinking is likely to be used by the public to elevate Tottenham while Watford is forgotten about. Consider having some cheap exposure to the Hornets this weekend in large-field tournaments as they will create unique lineups and provide much-needed salary relief.