Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 28
Which Premier League matches offer betting value for this week on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Norwich vs. Leicester
Leicester to win -135
This game figures to be a major mismatch as Leicester is currently third in the table on 50 points while Norwich are dead last in the table with 18 points. Norwich will have home-field advantage but even at home they are struggling at 3W-3D-7L with a -8 goal differential.
In addition to the wide gap in the table, Leicester are also 17 spots ahead of Norwich in WhoScored.com’s team rankings, which take into account a variety of season-long stats rather than just the results. It is no fluke that these teams are separated by such a large gap in the table, as Norwich simply do not have the quality to compete in the EPL this season.
Leicester are 7-2-4 at away from home, making them the third best away team in the league, and they should have no problem winning this match.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +1 (no push) -130
Crystal Palace will be underdogs when they travel to Brighton this weekend, but perhaps the betting odds are a bit disrespectful to how they’ve played this season. Palace are ahead of Brighton in the table by five points, and they are five spots ahead in the WhoScored.com team rankings.
Brighton are not a great home team at 4-6-3 on their home pitch, giving them a win rate of only 30.77%. On the flip side, Palace are 3-5-5 in their travels for a win/draw rate of 61.5%. The implied odds of a Palace win/draw are just 56.5%, so there is certainly some potential for bettors to take advantage here.
Watford vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win -230
Liverpool continue to get somewhat modest odds (given their lofty expectations) to win despite having a historic season. Even at -230, Liverpool’s implied odds to win the game are only 69.7%, according to the betting line.
Liverpool, of course, are in the midst of an incredible 26-1-0 season, and they are 12-1-0 away. They will be facing 19th-placed Watford, who have just 24 points in 27 games with a -19 goal differential.
Obviously, it is a bit unreasonable to expect Liverpool to continue winning over 96% of their games. But they are facing a terrible team, and the Reds have been in tremendous form domestically. Even with the smaller return, this is a good bet given the -230 odds.
