FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/15/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Tottenham at Newcastle||Tottenham (-135)||-110||Kane (-105)|
|Wolves at Burnley||Wolves (-115)||+156||Jiménez (+130)|
|Bournemouth at Man City||Man City (-700)||-340||Jesus (-210)|
|Liverpool at Arsenal||Liverpool (-120)||-174||Salah (-110)|
Even though we have three other favorites, Manchester City check every box and will be wildly popular -- as they should be. They've outscored their opponents 25-3 since the restart. We could see some squad rotation for City as they have an FA Cup semifinal versus Arsenal on Saturday and don't really need to beat Bournemouth, who are fighting for their top-flight lives. Those two things are probably the reason City are at only -700 to win.
Pep Guardiola's squad has eight players with anytime goal odds better than +200 -- led by Gabriel Jesus ($18; -250) and Raheem Sterling ($22; -150). Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +135) could see ownership levels around 70% and should be on the ball a ton in addition to his set-piece monopoly. He's averaging 32.5 FanDuel points per game in his five starts since play resumed, and if you're going to swallow chalk for any EPL player, it's him.
Don't sleep on Phil Foden ($14; +130) if the youngster gets in the starting XI. While his FanDuel game log isn't pretty of late (1.3, 4.3 and 1.3 FD points), he led City in expected goals, per FBRef, in the lone match he started across his past three. He'll offer good anytime goal odds and a huge ceiling at a bargain salary if he starts, though he'll likely be pretty popular at this price tag.
Outside of City, we have three other favorites -- Liverpool (-120), Wolves (-115) and Spurs (-135).
Of that group, I like Liverpool the best, and their recent blah form coupled with them being in the late game -- creating uncertainty around their lineup -- could cause them to go a little under-owned. In most lineups, I'll be getting all my attackers from Liverpool and City.
Oddsmakers have certainly bought in to the Reds taking their foot off the gas since clinching the title as Liverpool are just -115 to win on the road against an Arsenal side they have 43 more points than and are 32.7 goals better than by expected goal differential. Plus, the Gunners could have their eye on the aforementioned FA Cup clash against City, so they may field a slightly weakened lineup. I think it's a great time to pounce on the Reds, and stacking Liverpool may be somewhat contrarian if the masses go with three City players.
Mohamed Salah ($20; -110) has the best goal odds in the fixture, and Sadio Mané ($17; +105) is cheaper than he usually is while still offering superb upside. Roberto Firmino ($15; +185) created six chances last time out, and while he doesn't have a goal or an assist since the restart, he's recorded 1.4 expected goals and 0.7 expected assists in that time. He's got just eight EPL goals on the year, but he's tallied 13.5 expected goals, so he's due.
Added time -- It's not easy to trust Spurs (I don't), but Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet for six consecutive matches in all competitions. This is a great spot for Tottenham's attack to get back on track. Harry Kane ($20; -105) and Son Heung-Min ($18; +135) could feast in a match in which neither side has much to play for. ... The Burnley-Wolves match is an ugly +156 to see more than 2.5 goals, so if you go here, tread lightly. Raul Jiménez ($19; +135) has the best goal odds in the match, and Jay Rodriguez ($17; +300) has three goals over his past four. I can't envision many people paying up for either given the other high-priced options available, giving both a chance to be a swing player in GPPs.
Per usual, I'll be looking for cheap defenders on underdogs.
Lloyd Kelly ($9) and Steve Cook ($9) are both listed as expected starters for Bournemouth in a match in which the Cherries should be under siege. If those two are in the lineup, I'm probably plugging them in, hoping for 10ish points and going on my way. Newcastle could have Emil Krafth ($9) and Javier Manquillo ($8) in the lineup, and they will likely be busy versus Spurs.
If you want to pay up at defender, Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) might not see his usual gaudy ownership. TAA hasn't topped 13.4 FanDuel points in any of his last four outings, and with all of the good top-tier attackers available, I envision most people trying to save some coin at defense. But Alexander-Arnold still brings to the table his set-piece work and good goal odds for a defender (+750). He was a key figure in the reverse fixture at Arsenal last August, totaling 10 shot-creating actions and playing the most passes on the Reds.
João Cancelo ($12) and Benjamin Mendy ($10) need to be on your radar as cheap pieces to a City stack. Mendy has been in nice form since play resumed, creating one chance in each of the last three games. Cancelo has +750 goal odds and has been credited with four chances created across his last two games.
Added time -- Jonny ($9) and Conor Coady ($8) are cheap expected starters for Wolves, and given how low-scoring that game should be, their clean-sheet odds aren't bad. Jonny offers more upside from his wing-back spot. ... Héctor Bellerín ($9), Sead Kolasinac ($9) and Kieran Tierney ($8) are low-cost defenders on Arsenal who are listed as expected starters. They should have plenty to do against Liverpool.
Ederson ($15) has the best win odds as well as the top clean sheet odds -- by a significant margin in terms of win odds. City are -110 to keep a clean sheet. The negatives with Ederson are that there probably won't be much save volume to help you out if he does concede a goal, and using him means you can roster just three City defenders/attackers. Oh, and he's expensive. But in terms of win and clean-sheet odds, Ederson is the choice.
Rui Patrício ($11) might wind up being the slate's highest-owned keeper. Wolves are -104 to keep a clean sheet, and Patrício is under-priced in this spot. But I'm tempted to fade him, because I don't like swallowing chalk at keeper. Plus, Burnley have been good lately, and Wolves win odds aren't that great (-115).
Alisson ($13) profiles as a sneaky-good GPP option as he should see less ownership than Patrício and Hugo Lloris ($12), the latter of whom is a decent +142 to keep a clean sheet and has the slate's second-best win odds. Using Alisson is a bet on talent in an effort to be contrarian, and I can see myself landing here in a lot of lineups.
Added time -- Speaking of Lloris, he checks some boxes and is a good play in his own right. It'll be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between he and Patrício. ... Nick Pope ($9) is coming off a remarkable outing against Liverpool (eight saves, one goal allowed) and is extremely cheap. Burnley are +250 to keep a clean sheet and +380 to win, but they're getting it done lately with three wins and two draws over their last five. Pope paired with two low-cost defenders frees up plenty of cash for you to go nuts in your FWD/MID spots.