Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 3
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs. Crystal Palace
Everton to win +105
Palace and Everton are both off to incredible starts to the season, as each side is perfect two games in. Everton won 1-0 over Spurs in their first match and 5-2 against West Brom in the second weekend. The Toffees have a +4 goal differential and a +3.8 expected goal differential, per FBref, so their goal scoring is in line with the quality of chances they have been creating.
Crystal Palace are also 2W-0D-0L with a 1-0 win over Southampton and a 3-1 win over Manchester United. However, Palace were clearly much less dominant than Everton have been, as the Eagles had less than 30% possession in each game and were outshot in both. As a result, their expected goal difference is +0.3, which is almost 3 goals lower than their actual goal difference of +3.
Everton have been more impressive in their wins and should be expected to win this game on Saturday.
Sheffield United vs. Leeds
Sheffield to win +165
Sheffield United established themselves as a quality EPL side last season when they finished 9th in the table. Despite an 0-0-2 start to this campaign, there is still reason to believe the Blades will be a good team again this season.
Sheffield United lost their opening game 2-0 against Wolves, but they were outshot only 11-9. In Matchweek 2 they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa, but they played down a man most of the game due to a red card in the 12th minute. Despite playing almost half their season with 10 men, Sheffield still have just a -0.6 expected goal differential, which is actually 2.2 goals better than Leeds’ expected goal difference of -2.8.
Leeds have been on both ends of two wild 4-3 games, but according to expected goal difference, their offensive output has been overstated (2.3 expected goals compared to 7 actual goals). Leeds will need to play better if they want to keep winning, and they will be in for a tough test against Sheffield United this weekend.
Manchester City vs. Leicester
Leicester +2 (no push) -105
Leicester are being a bit disrespected with this betting line. The Foxes finished in fifth place last season, and they are off to a strong 2-0-0 start this campaign with convincing wins over West Brom and Burnley. It hasn't been the most challenging schedule thus far, but Leicester have a strong goal difference of +5 and a decent expected goal difference of +1.2.
Manchester City have played just one league game thus far, and while they played well at Wolves in a 3-1 win, they had expected goal difference of only 0.9 for the match.
Manchester City are a great team, but a one-goal Citizens victory is still a winning bet given the two-goal spread. Leicester are too good of a team to expect a blowout in this match.
