FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 11/7/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Leeds United at Crystal Palace||Leeds (+145)||+104||Bamford (+185)|
|Sheffield United at Chelsea||Chelsea (-290)||-146||Werner (-175)|
|Fulham at West Ham||West Ham (-125)||-118||Haller/Mitrovic (+130)|
Well, Chelsea are going to be popular, and that means Timo Werner ($22; -175 goal odds) will likely be the slate's chalk player. Those goal odds are a slate-best mark by a wide margin, and Werner is finding his form as he's got seven goals across his last seven matches, including two spot kicks last time out in midweek UCL action. Both of those penalties came when Jorginho ($14; +550) was on the pitch, and if Werner is now the Blues' top choice for pens -- which he might be from the sound of it -- that's a huge boost to the German's DFS value.
Stacking Chelsea makes a lot of sense as Sheffield United are struggling mightily, tallying a mere one point this season. With Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic expected to be out, I like using Hakim Ziyech ($17; +190), Mason Mount ($18; +280) or Callum Hudson-Odoi ($12; +200) with Werner, or you could use two of them and fade the Werner chalk if you wanted. In the middle of a hectic fixture list, Chelsea could rotate the squad, and Olivier Giroud ($14; -115) and Tammy Abraham ($16; -115) are enticing if they get into the starting lineup.
West Ham are the other decent-sized favorite (-125) on the slate for their home match with Fulham, a side that has shipped 14 goals in seven league matches. The Hammers sit a solid seventh in expected goal differential, per FBRef, and I'm surprised they're not bigger favorites. I won't stack West Ham attackers, especially with Michail Antonio sidelined, but I'll absolutely have exposure to them. Sébastien Haller ($16; +130) has the best goal odds on West Ham while Jarrod Bowen ($17; +175) has three goals in seven starts.
On the flip side of that game, Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrović ($16; +130) has the same goal odds as Haller and has taken Fulham's only two penalties this season. West Ham have allowed the sixth-fewest expected goals, so the matchup isn't ideal. But on a three-game slate where one of the games has ugly over 2.5 goal odds, we can't be too picky.
Speaking of the game that's expected to be low-scoring, Leeds-Palace is tough to get a read on. FanDuel Sportsbook has Leeds as a slight favorite (+145), but the over 2.5 goal odds for this one are only +104. Yuck. I guess oddsmakers don't like these attacks, because Palace (16th) and Leeds (last) are both bottom-five defenses by expected goals allowed. Leeds' style is crazy fun, and it usually leads to quality chances for the other side.
That pushes me toward Palace's Wilfried Zaha ($17; +210). Zaha is perfectly suited to thrive in an up-and-down match, and he's been excellent so far this season with five goals and one assist in seven starts. He's also taken both of Palace's penalties in EPL play. That task has fallen to Luka Milivojević in recent seasons, but Milivojević is suspended for this weekend and isn't getting as much playing time overall this campaign.
Added time -- Leeds shouldn't be overlooked, particularly if you think this game sees more goals than what oddsmakers are implying. Patrick Bamford ($20; +185) has the best goal odds in the match, and Mateusz Klich ($16; +320) isn't a bad play, either. ... I'm probably not touching any Blades attackers, but if you must, Rhian Brewster ($11; +310) has the pace to hurt Chelsea on the counter.
Ben Chilwell ($15) and Reece James ($13) are great high-ceiling full-back options on this slate, and they should have chances to get forward versus a Sheffield United side that is next to last in possession (38.4%). Both are +900 to score, which isn't bad for a defender. Chilwell has one goal and two assists, and James has one goal and one assist. James has 11 passes leading to a shot attempt while Chilwell has seven. Both are nice stacking pieces.
Marcos Alonso ($11) has just three starts this campaign, but he's worth mentioning in case he's in the Blues' starting XI as he has +490 goal odds, an elite number for the position.
Sheffield United offer some lower-salary defenders who should be busy, giving them a decent floor of points. George Baldock ($8) and Max Lowe ($6) are listed as expected starters and should be good for around 10 FanDuel points.
All four of Leeds' probable starters at defender -- Robin Koch ($10), Liam Cooper ($11), Luke Ayling ($13) and Stuart Dallas ($14) -- are averaging double-digit FanDuel points per game. Dallas has put up at least 17.1 FanDuel points in four of his past five outings.
Added time -- Patrick van Aanholt ($11) is still carrying a salary much lower than what he had during the restart last season (prior to getting hurt). He's still rounding into form from that injury, but in what could be an open affair against Leeds, he offers a decent floor of defensive points as well as some attacking upside. ... Fabián Balbuena ($14) is averaging 19.0 FanDuel points per game for the year with a season-low of 13.0. That'll play.
Like we saw at the other two positions, Chelsea will be chalk at goalie, as well. Edouard Mendy ($14) has recorded six straight clean sheets since allowing one goal in an EFL Cup match in his very first start for the Blues. He's been exactly what Chelsea have needed, and while the save volume is unlikely to be there versus Sheffield United, he's got the best win odds (-290) as well as the best clean-sheet odds (-108) among keepers. The Blades have only three goals in seven EPL matches.
Lukasz Fabianski ($12) is likely where I'll land if I don't have the salary for Mendy. Fabianski has the second-best win odds (+146) and the second-best clean-sheet chances (+146) for his clash against a Fulham side that has averaged only one goal per game through seven league matches.
I'll make it a priority to have the coin for one of Fabianski or Mendy.
Added time -- If you side with oddsmakers and expect Leeds-Palace to be a low-scoring match, you can get your goalie from that game. Illan Meslier ($10) is +210 to keep a clean sheet while Vicente Guaita ($9) is +230. If you use one of these two, it makes sense to also roster an attacker from the goalie's team. Attacker-goalie stacks are one of the most profitable stacks.