Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 19
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Leeds vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +240
Brighton +1 (no push) -130
Leeds are having a decent season at 7W-2D-8L, and they are placed in the middle of the EPL table. Leeds appear to be a mediocre team this season, which is reasonable considering it is their first year returning to the EPL. They have a minur-3 goal difference and a minus-2 expected goal difference, so they are about an average side and are performing about how they should, per expected goals.
Brighton continue to be one of the most confusing teams in the EPL. They are barely above the relegation zone in 17th place with a 2-8-8 record, but Brighton still boast a +3.1 expected goal difference and have been unlucky this season.
Even if Brighton are not quite as unlucky as their expected goal difference implies, they still should have a decent chance to win given Leeds lack of dominance so far this season. At the very least, Brighton should be able to draw this game, making them a good bet against the spread, where they are 1.0-goal 'dogs.
West Ham vs. Burnley
West Ham to win -125
Burnley are the second worst team in the league this season so far based on expected goal difference, sitting at -8.6 for the year. Burnley have scored only nine goals all season long, which is tied for the lowest total in the league (with Sheffield United).
West Ham are not a great team, but they have shown enough to be considered a reliable mid-table side at 7-5-5 on the year. They have a +3 goal difference and a +0.1 expected goal difference, which is miles ahead of Burnley's clips.
West Ham are the superior team and should get the full three points on Saturday.
Liverpool vs. Manchester United
Liverpool to win -105
This game will potentially have huge title ramifications, as Manchester United currently lead second-place Liverpool by three points for first place in the table.
Liverpool are 9-6-2 this year, so they have had a bit of trouble earning victories, settling for draws in many matches. However, they do own the best goal difference in the league at +16 and they carry the second best expected goal difference at +13.1, so it is reasonable for us to expect more wins from Liverpool going forward. Not to mention they went 32-3-3 in the league last season.
Manchester United are currently atop the table, but they do fall behind Liverpool by six goals on goal differential and are significantly behind on expected goal difference, as they rank only sixth in the league in this category at +6.3.
Manchester United may be ahead in the standings, but Liverpool are still the better team and are rightly favored in this contest. Still, at almost even odds, Liverpool to win is a good bet, and they should be full-go in an effort to get back atop the table.
