FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 2/6/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, February 6th|
|Southampton at Newcastle|
|Brighton at Burnley|
|West Ham at Fulham|
|Everton at Manchester United|
Matchweek 23 features one big-six side in Manchester United. The Red Devils (-148) are the largest favorites on the slate, with West Ham (+100) the next closest. Brighton (+125) are right behind them, followed by Southampton (+160).
From an odds perspective, this slate is incredibly even. United, the lone home favorite, is far from a sure thing at their odds, and the other three fixtures all feature very slight road favorites. As far as slates go, this is about as wide open as they come. However, given the lack of other big-six sides on the slate, United will probably be more popular than they should be at their current odds. Coming off a 9-0 demolition of Southampton during the week, fading United seems scary, but the odds say it's well worth consideration.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Che Adams, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $15
Despite being listed as slight favorites this weekend, Southampton will likely be avoided by many. They're coming off an embarrassing nine-goal defeat to Manchester United and have lost four in a row. The bright side is they get to play a Newcastle squad that has just one win in their last 13 fixtures and is allowing 1.6 goals per match, the fourth-most in the league. When two bad sides meet, there's an opportunity for both to exceed their expectations.
Those betting on a Southampton bounce back will likely look to Danny Ings ($19), but at just $2 less than Marcus Rashford ($21) and $2 more than Edinson Cavani ($17), there may be better value with Adams at much lower popularity. Adams has been held off the scoresheet in eight straight appearances (seven starts) but did manage three goals from his first seven fixtures earlier in the season. He's played the full 90 in both of his last two starts and has a combined three chances created, three shots on goal, and six total shots over his last four matches.
At his salary of $15, Adams falls firmly into the midrange and is likely too expensive to be included in lineups choosing to stack United's stars. On paper, this slate has a large amount of uncertainty, making Adams a solid option as a likely under-the-radar play. Consider pairing him with Newcastle's Callum Wilson ($16) or Miguel Almiron ($15) to take advantage of the poor defensive play of both of these sides.
Jay Rodriguez, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $10
All eyes will be on Brighton this weekend following their back-to-back one-goal victories over Tottenham and Liverpool in their last two fixtures. Those recent performances could be enough to make them the second most popular side on the slate behind Manchester United. Brighton has looked solid, but the enthusiasm may swing too far in their favor and leave Burnley completely overlooked on Saturday.
Burnley is coming off back-to-back losses to Manchester City and Chelsea, but their two games before those saw them defeat Aston Villa and Liverpool. This should be a more even contest than recent results would lead you to believe. With Chris Wood ruled out and Ashley Barnes' ($12) status still up in the air, Rodriguez should be locked into another start on Saturday. While there is very little in his performances this season that inspires confidence, the minutes should be there, and his salary is very manageable.
If Barnes is fit to play, he would be the preferred option over Rodriguez given his far more impactful contributions this season. Brighton has been impressive, and maybe they finally have turned the corner. But the odds suggest this will be a close one, so don't forget about Burnley.