FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 5/19/21
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Wolves at Everton||Everton (-115)||+112||Calvert-Lewin (+100)|
|Sheffield United at Newcastle||Newcastle (-135)||-122||Carroll/Gayle (+130)|
|Arsenal at Crystal Palace||Arsenal (-195)||-130||Lacazette (-110)|
|Aston Villa at Tottenham||Tottenham (-190)||-188||Kane (-175)|
|West Ham at West Brom||West Ham (-170)||-156||Lingard (-120)|
|Liverpool at Burnley||Liverpool (-470)||-290||Salah (-300)|
This six-match slate is a fun appetizer for the 10-match slate that awaits us on Sunday, the final day of the campaign.
The larger slate and deeper player pool should help spread out draft percentages, but even with that, Liverpool are likely to be pretty dang popular. Not only are they a slate-high -470 favorite in their match with Burnley, the Reds need to win in their race for the top four. Not having to worry about a side's motivation is really nice this time of the year, and Liverpool will be treating this match like a cup final. The Reds are -430 to go over 1.5 goals and -122 to score at least three. They're the only side I'll stack on this slate.
Mohamed Salah ($22; -300) has the slate's top goal odds by a wide margin and will be on penalties for the Reds. He's a smashing play. The only concern is that he'll be very chalky, but that might -- emphasis on might -- be mitigated some by the size of the slate. If you want to fade Salah, you can turn to one or both of Sadio Mane ($20; -135) and Roberto Firmino ($15; +125). Firmino should start with Diogo Jota out injured.
After Liverpool, the side with the best over 1.5 goal odds is Tottenham (-215), who is a -190 home favorite against Aston Villa. According to FBRef, the Villans have conceded at least 1.0 expected goals (xG) in 12 straight matches across all competitions, including 2.2 to Spurs on March 21. I won't stack Tottenham, but I want exposure to them.
Whenever Spurs are in a plum spot, the masses go to Harry Kane ($23; -175). You can't argue with the goal odds or with his 22 goals and 13 assists this season. For DFS, Kane is not as goal-reliant as he used to be. Tottenham have solid pivot options, though, in Son Heung-min ($21; -130) and Gareth Bale ($18; -140) if you want to fade Kane.
West Ham (-172 to go over 1.5 goals) and Arsenal (-162) are the other two most appealing sides. The Hammers are -170 favorites at relegated West Brom while the Gunners are -195 to win at Crystal Palace. It's not a bad idea to take one attacker apiece from Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and West Ham if you can make it work.
For West Ham, Jesse Lingard ($17 ;-120) is cooling off a bit after his unreal run of form, going without a goal in four straight. Now, however, might be the perfect time to pounce, as Lingard has still taken eight shots in that time while producing 18 shot-creating actions. He's got a ceiling as high as anyone on this slate. Michail Antonio ($19; -115) may go overlooked, while Said Benrahma ($13; +230) and Tomas Soucek ($14; +195) are economical ways to get a piece of West Ham.
Arsenal have been mixing and matching their starting XI of late. If the Gunners are on their game -- a big if -- they could net a few against a Palace defense that has shipped a total of five goals to Southampton and Villa over their last two matches. Alexandre Lacazette ($18; -110) has a team-best 13 goals in 22 league starts. If Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; -110) starts, he may be on pens. Bukayo Saka ($12; +210) would have a better fantasy outlook if he's at wing-back or in midfield as opposed to full-back.
Added time -- Newcastle are -130 to go over 1.5 goals in their home matchup with the relegated Blades, and they won't be popular. Allan Saint-Maximin ($14; +200) will likely be the guy I target most outside of the four sides we broke down above. ... Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($20; +100) and Richarlison ($16; +170) have good goal odds at home against Wolves, but at +112 to go over 2.5 goals, this match could be a fantasy death zone for attackers. ... Declan Rice ($9) may the West Ham's first-choice penalty taker. ... Matheus Pereira ($18; +230) could be a huge GPP swing play if he gets a goal for West Brom.
My priority at defender will be to find value plays -- something there should be plenty of on a slate this large -- particularly from underdog sides like Burnley, Villa, Palace and West Brom, as defenders from those teams should be busy.
I'm not going to run through all of the possible options, but check starting lineups and go from there. My thought process with targeting values at defender is pretty simple -- I want all the cap space I can get for my four attacking slots.
If I do deviate from that plan, it'll be for Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15). Since being omitted from the England squad last international break, Liverpool's right-back has gotten back to his best, amassing three assists over his past five outings while racking up an eye-popping 29 shot-creating actions in that time. He's still tallied seven assists in EPL play even in a down year, and his +490 goal odds are elite for a defender. Against a Burnley side that are usually content to concede crosses, Trent -- who takes a lot of corners and free kicks -- should be putting a lot of balls into the box.
On the flip side of that match, Burnley's Ben Mee ($12) and James Tarkowski ($14) should be high-floor options against the Reds. While I'm not crazy about the idea of paying up for floors on a slate where we should be able to find decent floors at lower salaries, Mee and Tarkowski could both get 15-plus FanDuel points from defensive actions.
Matt Ritchie ($7) is a superb point-per-dollar play if he starts at full-back for Newcastle. Ritchie should be able to get forward more than usual in a home clash with Sheffield United, and he handles some set-piece work.
Added time -- Andrew Robertson ($12) won't be as chalky as Alexander-Arnold, but he has a lot going for him versus the Clarets. He has 10 shot-creating actions over his past four league matches. ... Lucas Digne ($14) is going to go overlooked in a blah matchup with Wolves. He's got +550 goal odds, though, and gets some set-piece work.
Alisson ($14) feels like a safe play in a match the Reds should win easily. But we've seen Liverpool struggle with bottom-feeders over the second half of the season, and that was at play last week as Alisson conceded a goal against West Brom in a match in which the Reds won at the very end (via an Alisson goal). We'd likely need the win and clean-sheet bonuses for Alisson to be worth his salary, but Liverpool carry the best win (-470) and clean-sheet (+120) odds.
After Alisson, you can make roughly an equally appealing argument for Bernd Leno ($13), Hugo Lloris ($12) and Lukasz Fabianski ($11). I think I rank them in that order, but if you asked me five minutes from now, I may have them completely flipped.
Let's look at the numbers. Leno has the best win (-195) and clean-sheet (+122) odds of this trio. Trusting Arsenal is, um, not easy, but the numbers are there. Lloris and Fabianski are both +156 to keep a clean sheet, which is a good bit worse than Leno's odds, although both have good win odds (-190 for Lloris and -170 for Fabianski).
Martin Dubravka ($10) isn't for the faint of heart, but he does check some boxes. Newcastle are +142 to keep a clean sheet against Sheffield United, and the Magpies are -135 to win. On a slate where every buck will matter, Dubravka is worth a look at his salary. If I use him, I'll likely pair him with a Newcastle attacker.
Added time -- With the Everton-Wolves match at +112 to go over 2.5 goals, it's not a bad place to look for a clean sheet. Jordan Pickford ($10) is +126 to keep a clean sheet, but Everton are just -115 to win. ... If you fade one of the four sizable favorites, you can use the opposing goalie as a correlation play. Of the big favorites, Arsenal are the side I'm most willing to fade, so whoever Palace starts between Vicente Guaita ($7) or Jack Butland ($7) is the underdog keeper I'm most into.