DraftKings Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 11/20/21
The international break is over and we’ve got six games in the Premier League on the main slate. Let’s look at the games, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Norwich (+260)||+240||Southampton (+105)|
|Newcastle (+160)||+230||Brentford (+170)|
|Wolves (+200)||+230||West Ham (+145)|
|Aston Villa (+140)||+220||Brighton (+200)|
|Burnley (+175)||+220||Crystal Palace (+170)|
|Watford (+500)||+350||Man United (-200)|
Forwards to Target
Cristiano Ronaldo ($8,700): There aren’t a ton of good options to use salary on at the top of the forward position, so we can look at Cristiano Ronaldo. His salary is the third-highest at the position, behind only Jarrod Bowen and Leandro Trossard. Those two are fairly low-ceiling options for this salary, which can’t be said about Ronaldo.
Despite playing on the road, Manchester United are by far the biggest favorite on the slate. They had some rough games in October, but those were mostly against Liverpool and Manchester City. Versus a Watford side that has conceded the fourth-most goals in the league this season, United shouldn’t have a problem.
Ronaldo has any time goal-scoring odds of -145, the best on the slate. If you are looking for a forward in the top tier, he’s your best bet.
Callum Wilson ($7,300): Wilson hasn't been fit for the entire season, but when he has, he's produced. He has four goals in seven league starts, serving as Newcastle's most consistent goal threat.
With Newcastle changing managers to Eddie Howe, there may be some questions about how players will be used. Wilson shouldn't be one of them. He played under Howe at Bournemouth for six years and had some good seasons there. Wilson should have Howe's trust and could be leaned upon in Howe's first match in charge.
It is difficult to roster Newcastle players at times because they are often overmatched, but that isn't the case against Brentford at home. Wilson's +135 goal-scoring odds are good for his salary, making him a fine tournament play at forward.
Teemu Pukki ($5,700): Pukki is the punt option at forward. He scored in Norwich's last game and is up to three goals on the season. Norwich has a new manager in place, and Dean Smith showed at Aston Villa that he can play an attacking style that gets something out of his center forward. Pukki has the best goal-scoring odds in this game despite having a salary lower than four Southampton forwards, so he offers solid value.
Others to Consider: Michail Antonio ($7,900), Raúl Jiménez ($7,200), Danny Ings ($6,400)
Midfielders to Target
James Ward-Prowse ($9,100): Ward-Prowse returned from his suspension and stepped right back into his normal role. He's taken 10 set pieces in the last two matches and has a true monopoly. He has 12 and 14 crosses in those outings, so he's been able to produce fantasy points.
The matchup against Norwich is a great one for JWP. Norwich allows the most crosses per game in the Premier League. Ward-Prowse offers the highest floor on the slate and has a realistic path to 30 points if he is able to add a goal to all of his points from crosses.
Emiliano Buendía ($7,300): Buendía has been fairly productive when on the pitch for Aston Villa this season. He's averaged more than four crosses and two chances created per 90 minutes and gets a good amount of set-piece duty.
Like Norwich and Newcastle, Villa have a new manager taking charge of his first game. Steven Gerrard had success with Rangers in Scotland, and he favored a 4-3-3 formation. If Gerrard sticks to that at Villa, this would mean that Buendía would have little defensive responsibilities, allowing him to attack even more. Villa are favored in this game, and Buendía should have a nice outing at home against Brighton.
Ashley Westwood ($5,000): Never the most exciting option but always reliable, Westwood is in play again. His salary has fallen due to two poor outings in his last four games, but those came against Manchester City and Chelsea. In every other game this season, he's scored at least 8.1 DraftKings points. The odds tell us that this game between Burnley and Crystal Palace is fairly even, so Westwood should be fine for his floor.
Others to Consider: Bruno Fernandes ($8,900), Mathias Normann ($6,100), Mathias Jensen ($5,500), João Moutinho ($4,500)
Defenders to Target
Luke Shaw ($6,000): Shaw suffered a concussion during the international break, but he was training for Manchester United this week, so he should be good to go. Like other Manchester United players, he has struggled for about a month, but this matchup against Watford should get him back on track. The Hornets allow the third-most crosses per game in the league. He has taken over the majority of corner kicks from Bruno Fernandes, and we've seen him have games of 11 and 16 crosses in the league already this season. The corner taker for the biggest favorite on the slate for just $6,000 is always a good play, and it's especially true when we can plug him in at defender.
Note that if Shaw can't go, Alex Telles ($5,800) has taken the same role when on the pitch and would be a fine replacement.
Aaron Cresswell ($5,500): Cresswell is another defender who takes set pieces and has been very useful in fantasy. He's fourth in the Premier League in crosses this season. Cresswell offers a nice ceiling for a defender to go with his floor. He had eight assists last season and has four in all competitions this year. He can score with left-footed free kicks, as he had three goals in the 2019-20 season. This is a great salary for him, especially when compared to the midfielders and forwards at the same salary.
Rayan Aït-Nouri ($4,900): Aït-Nouri has been something of a revelation for Wolves. The 19-year-old has been playing well as a left midfielder and is listed at defender in DFS. He has been taking some corner kicks over the past two games, something that may go under the radar this week. That has helped him score 11.7 and 9.4 points in those two matches. Aït-Nouri is another great defender play, and it wouldn't be crazy to put all three of these guys in your lineup.
Others to Consider: Matt Targett ($4,500), Ben Johnson ($4,300), Rico Henry ($3,800)
Goalkeepers to Target
Alex McCarthy ($5,200): McCarthy has kept a clean sheet in five of 11 league games this season. Now he gets a matchup against Norwich City, who have scored just five goals all campaign. Southampton have usually kept things tight defensively, so McCarthy is a fine option at goalkeeper.
Vicente Guaita ($4,800): Guaita has conceded just 14 goals in 11 appearances, with four clean sheets. He goes up against Burnley in an evenly matched game, but that doesn't mean Burnley will have the ability to light him up. They've scored just 11 goals in 11 league matches this season. With only one team on the slate favored to win (over the three possible results) and no team favored to keep a clean sheet, the keeper position will have a lot of randomness this week, but you can feel fairly comfortable that Guaita won't sink your lineup.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.