FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/8/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Brentford (+330) at Newcastle (-125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+130)
Leicester (+105) at Bournemouth (+250)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+115)
Southampton (+1900) at Manchester City (-900)
Over 2.5 Goals: -390 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-260)
Wolves (+700) at Chelsea (-260)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+100)
Tottenham (+155) at Brighton (+170)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+155)
It's another slate where Manchester City are miles ahead of the pack. City are -900 to win at home against Southampton, and oddsmakers are expecting a bloodbath. City are listed at -714 to score two-plus goals, -227 to get at least three and +110 to net four or more. No other side on the slate is better than -182 to score two-plus goals.
So, yeah, the Cityzens are 100% stackable, and even though we have some other good teams on the slate, you can make a case for dedicating three attacking slots to City players. Anyone who starts in an attacking spot for City will be a good play.
Erling Haaland ($25; -260 to score/-460 to get a goal or assist) has quickly established himself as the EPL's best DFS asset. What he's doing right now is bonkers. He's got three hat tricks through eight EPL matches, and he's averaging 44.5 FanDuel points per game. Haaland has shown massive upside, notching at least 60.0 FanDuel points three times, including 87.3 in his most recent EPL match. At -260 to get a goal and -460 to score/assist, Haaland feels like an impossible fade right now -- even at a $25 salary.
On the flip side, Haaland has to slow down at some point, right? And his draft percentage is going to be silly -- likely upwards of 80% or higher. Plus, his salary accounts for a fourth of your entire budget. So, in short, I think you can make a case for fading him; you just have to cross your fingers that he doesn't nuke another slate.
Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +115/-340), Phil Foden ($20; +125/-170), Jack Grealish ($18; +200/-180), Riyad Mahrez ($17; -105/-240), Bernardo Silva ($19; +240/-135) and Ilkay Gundogan ($17; +185/-110) all profile as superb plays if they start. Mahrez would be really appealing at his salary if he gets into the starting XI. He's got the second-best goal odds on City.
After City, Chelsea are in their own tier. They're -260 to win at home against a Wolves side that is struggling. Chelsea are -182 to score at least twice, and Graham Potter has managed to liven up a Blues attack that had grown stale. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; +100/-155) has staked claim to a starting gig right away, and he and Raheem Sterling ($17; +190/-115) are the only forwards to score since Potter took charge.
Newcastle are the third-biggest favorite, priced at -125 to win at home versus Brentford. Oddsmakers are clearly buying into the Magpies' quality start to the campaign, and they are -138 to go over 1.5 goals. Callum Wilson ($18; +130/-110) should lead the line, and Allan Saint-Maximin ($17; +280/+105) shoulders a lot of creative responsibility for Eddie Howe's side. Newcastle also give us some serviceable value options in Joe Willock ($13; +330/+210), Bruno Guimaraes (+360/+170) and Ryan Fraser ($9; +360/+140).
Leicester are a side I want a piece of. The Foxes played well last time out versus Forest, and it could be the result they needed to get back on track. They'll be at Bournemouth Saturday, and it's another soft matchup. A slow start to the season has Jamie Vardy ($16; +115/-140) at an easy-to-like salary, and the same can be said for Harvey Barnes ($13; +250/+115). I'll mostly fade James Maddison ($19; +240/+125), who is salaried up after his big game last Monday.
It feels weird to not have talked yet about either Spurs or Brighton. On paper, it's the least appealing match fantasy-wise, as it's just -110 to go over 2.5 goals. But while Spurs have been blah at times this season, we've also seen them have huge games under Antonio Conte, and Brighton were as entertaining as ever under Roberto De Zerbi last time out, drawing 3-3 at Anfield. I could see this game being a 1-0 affair or a 2-2 match.
I think Harry Kane ($20; +115/-110) and Son Heung-min ($18; +180/-105) will likely go a bit overlooked with the masses flocking to City and Chelsea. Both players have slate-breaking upside, so we should always be intrigued at the chance to get them at lower popularity.
Added time -- Mason Mount ($16; +240/+100) carries appealing goal/assist odds and is a modest-salaried way to get a piece of Chelsea. ... Richarlison ($17; +250/+165) figures to be locked into a starting gig for Spurs with Dejan Kulusevski out. ... Ivan Toney ($17; +220/+120) won't be in many lineups and is capable of getting a goal at Newcastle. ... Dominic Solanke ($16; +210/+150) has the best goal odds on Bournemouth. ... Danny Welbeck ($15; +260;+185) owns the best goal odds for Brighton.
With City and Chelsea in such good spots, we're spoiled for attacking full-backs on this slate.
Joao Cancelo ($14; +125 to score/assist) will likely get forward plenty for City. Reece James ($15; +185), Marc Cucurella ($10; +280) and Ben Chilwell ($10; +270) are all enticing if they start for Chelsea. While Cancelo and James are great plays if you have the coin, I'll be locked in on the left-back spot for the Blues, which will likely be either Chilwell or Cucurella, both of whom make a ton of sense at their salaries.
Newcastle's defenders have been outstanding DFS options this year. Among their full-backs, Kieran Trippier ($14; +270) has free-kick upside, but it's Matt Target ($10; +250) who has better goal/assist odds at a lower salary.
Southampton's defenders should be busy at City, and you can say the same -- to a lesser extent -- for Wolves' back-line. I'll be honed in on each side's center-backs, specifically Wolves' Maximilian Kilman ($10) and the Saints' Armel Bella-Kotchap ($11) and Mohammed Salisu ($10).
Added time -- Ivan Perisic ($11; +220) and Ryan Sessegnon ($10; +220) boast decent goal/assist odds for Tottenham. ... Nathan Ake ($8) is among the lowest-salaried expected starters and may get a clean-sheet bonus if City blank Southampton. ... Fabian Schar ($14) is averaging 19.6 FanDuel points per match and has put up at least 13.2 in every start but one.
The best win and clean-sheet odds belong to Ederson ($14) and Kepa Arrizabalaga ($12), so if that's a priority for you at goalie, save salary for one of them.
Ederson is -120 to keep a clean sheet and -900 to win. Per usual, he probably won't be busy, so there isn't likely to be save volume. But he can get 17.0 FanDuel points from a clean-sheet win. As for Kepa, he appears to be moving back into the number-one role for Chelsea since Potter took the reins. The matchup is a great one as Wolves have scored three -- yes, three -- goals through eight matches. Chelsea have conceded only 1.5 expected goals, per FBRef, through Potter's three games in charge.
Nick Pope ($11) is easy to get behind at this salary. At home versus Brentford, Pope is -125 to win and +180 to keep a clean sheet. Brentford have been shut out in two straight matches, though Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet across their past seven outings.
You can make a case for either Danny Ward ($10) or Neto ($9) in the Leicester-Bournemouth clash. Both sides need points, so if either team gets out to a 1-0 lead, we could see the leading team get conservative and try to hold on for a 1-0 win, especially if it's the Cherries who score first.
Added time -- We've seen Chelsea's attack go missing this year, so Jose Sa ($8) isn't a bad low-salary shout. The save volume figures to be good, and if Sa can hold the Blues to just a goal, he could post a decent score. ... Hugo Lloris ($11) and Robert Sanchez ($10) are capable of having good days in the Spurs-Brighton matchup. Of the two, I side with Sanchez.