World Cup Betting Guide for Sunday 11/27/22: How to Bet Germany vs. Spain

We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.

Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.

Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.

All World Cup odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Sunday, November 27th.

(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss. All expected goal data from FBRef.)

Japan (-230) vs. Costa Rica (+700)

Draw odds: +340

A legendary win for Japan over Germany (2-1) earned them three points, and that's a big boost to their odds of advancing because they still have a match against Spain lurking within the group.

Japan's 2-1 win came with an expected goal total of 1.5 for their side -- but 3.1 for Germany. That's a bit of a misleading victory, sure, yet the points are secured, and that's all that matters.

Japan is rating out as 62.9% likely to win this matchup, according to numberFire's algorithm. My model has their number at 58.8%. Either way, it's not enough to back the moneyline at -230 odds or expect them to cover the spread.

Costa Rica was demolished 7-0 by Spain and accrued 0.0 expected goals of their own against a dominant side.

This is another match where the under (2.5) is expected, and numberFire's model rates the under as a five-star play at -124 odds. My model sees this one staying under 64.0% of the time; numberFire's has it much higher at 80.7%.

Belgium (-105) vs. Morocco (+300)

Draw odds: +240

A lot of unders have been appearing as the best value in matchups, but in this one, it's the over (2.5), which is actually +112 odds.

Belgium escaped with a 1-0 win over Canada but allowed 2.4 expected goals in that matchup, so the defensive performance of a shutout is a bit misleading.

Morocco also blanked their first opponent, Croatia, and limited them to 0.5 expected goals. That's a bit of a concern for an over, but overall, Belgium projects as a high-scoring team with a good but not elite defense.

Croatia (+110) vs. Canada (+260)

Draw odds: +230

As laid out already, Canada was on the poor end of variance against Belgium in their opening match. Their 1-0 loss came despite an expected goal differential of 2.4 to 0.8 in their favor. Accounting for opponent strength, that was a very good defensive showing.

For Croatia, they had a 0-0 draw with Morocco in a match with only 0.9 expected goals combined.

numberFire's model thinks Croatia is 42.3% likely to win (mine has their odds at a similar 41.4%), and given the potential for a low-scoring matchup, the ideal angle here is to take the spread in Canada's favor.

Canada +1.0 (-140) is a five-star recommendation, via numberFire's model.

Spain (+130) vs. Germany (+165)

Draw odds: +250

What a matchup this should be. Spain is coming in off of a 7-0 rout over Costa Rica (with an expected goal score of 3.5 to 0.0).

Germany needs to get back on track after a surprising loss to Japan (again, with a 3.1 to 1.5 expected score in their favor).

Therefore, both sides here had expected goal totals over 3.0 on their own, and when accounting for opponents, I still have those marks at 2.40 (for Spain) and 2.74 (for Germany), totaling 5.14.

Accounting for everything, the best bets here are the over (2.5) at -146 as well as Germany +1.0 (-185).