FanDuel World Cup Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 12/2/22
The World Cup is the biggest sporting event on the planet, and FanDuel is offering daily fantasy contests throughout the tournament.
For the final round of the group stage, main slates will feature all four of the day’s matches, which are scheduled to start at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. EST.
Portugal (-130) vs. South Korea (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals: -112 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+125)
Uruguay (-135) vs. Ghana (+370)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Suarez/Cavani (+170)
Brazil (-250) vs. Cameroon (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Pedro (+115)
Serbia (+155) vs. Switzerland (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +108 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+170)
The final main slate of the group stages gives us Brazil as the standout side. Brazil are -250 to win against Cameroon, and they're a slate-best -200 to score at least two goals. No other side is better than -135 to win or -125 to score over 1.5 goals.
Brazil have mostly lived up to their billing as a tourney favorite, scoring 3.4 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, through two matches while giving up only 0.5. But DFS-wise, they have been a little meh going forward at times, and with their Round-of-16 spot locked up, we could see them underwhelm the way France did in a similar spot versus Tunisia. Even so, Brazil will likely be the chalk side on this slate, so I think you can make a game-theory case for being underweight on them. For me, that means using just one Brazilian attacker instead of two.
With that said, Cameroon have permitted four total goals through two games and at least 1.4 xG in each outing. Brazil could go off if they finally click -- even if they roll out an attack of backups, which is the expectation. WhoScored projects Brazil to start Gabriel Jesus ($21; +160 to score), Antony ($20; +200), Raphinha ($18; +240) and Gabriel Martinelli ($17; +210) in attack. That's still a potent group. If Pedro ($8; +115) gets a start, he'd be a smashing value. He's got the team's best goal odds. Of the expected starters, I'm most into the Arsenal duo of Jesus and Martinelli.
I really like Portugal -- both overall and on this slate. Our model does, too. We project them to score a slate-leading 2.25 goals against South Korea. They're -125 to go over 1.5 goals, so we like them more than oddsmakers do. Portugal's matches have been fun for DFS as they've tallied 3.3 xG while conceding 2.2. Having already clinched a top-two spot in the group, Portugal are in a similar situation as Brazil, but WhoScored has them putting out most of their best XI.
Cristiano Ronaldo ($21; +125) sports by far the top goal odds in the match. He'll take penalties and created three chances last time out. Bruno Fernandes ($22; +260), Joao Felix ($17; +270) and Rafael Leao ($16; +260) are superb options, as well. Bruno is -110 to score or assist. Don't sleep on Bernardo Silva ($13; +410). He hasn't been getting forward quite as much as he does for Manchester City, but he's a top talent with a bargain salary.
Uruguay are -113 to score at least twice. They have just one point and need a win, so there are zero motivation concerns. They are -135 to get that win, making them the slate's second-biggest favorite. Darwin Nunez ($17; +180) and Edinson Cavani ($15; +170) are projected to start in a front two. I'm also intrigued by Fede Valverde ($15; +380). While the goal odds aren't sexy, the Real Madrid star might get forward more than usual, and he's shown a knack for scoring in big matches in his young career.
Among the rest of the teams, Son Heung-min ($15; +270), Aleksandar Mitrovic ($20; +170) and Breel Embolo ($16; +260) need to be on our radar. Of the three, Mitrovic makes the most sense in my eyes. He carries the best goal odds in what is an evenly-matched Serbia-Switzerland fixture, and with his salary where it is, he may slip through the cracks a bit. He's been outstanding for Fulham this campaign and is in good form in this tourney, racking up a goal, two shots on target and one chance created last time out en route to 29.3 FanDuel points.
Brazil's full-backs will offer attacking upside, but it's hard to know who their two full-backs will be. We might get some value in Dani Alves ($9). Alves is +110 to score/assist and is easy to like at his salary if he gets a starting nod. Even before factoring in the salary difference, I prefer him to Alex Telles ($13), who is just +410 to score/assist.
Portugal's Joao Cancelo ($12) doesn't yet have a chance created but is +210 to score/assist. He's a top-notch full-back who is a high-upside stacking partner with any of Portugal's attackers.
Cameroon's Nouhou Tolo ($9) has scored 7.8 and 10.4 FanDuel points through two matches -- all from defensive actions. He should be a busy guy against Brazil, and the floor is enticing at this modest salary.
Kim Min-Jae ($8) is a similar type of play to Tolo. South Korea will likely be bombarded by Portugal, giving him a decent floor. He's averaging 7.1 FanDuel points per game thus far.
Ederson ($14) is listed as an expected starter for Brazil, and he's got the best win (-250) and clean-sheet (-110) odds. He's the backup to Alisson ($14), but he's an elite-level keeper. If Alisson starts, he's a quality option, too, obviously.
Sergio Rochet ($13) has more goals allowed (two) than saves (one) in this tourney, but Uruguay are +120 to blank Ghana, the second-best clean-sheet odds on the slate.
Portugal might have their backup in net, as well, which would mean a start for Rui Patricio ($12). Portugal are +135 to keep a clean sheet.
I don't mind Yann Sommer ($10) in the Serbia-Switzerland match. The Swiss keeper is in good form, making nine saves through two games. If he had to make five saves against Cameroon (which he did), he should be busy against Serbia. The save volume gives him a respectable floor as well as a huge ceiling if he can keep a clean sheet.