SOCCER

Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 26

Tom Sokol Mar 3rd, 2023
Liverpool are having a disappointing season, but should we bet them to beat Manchester United on Saturday?

Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.

Wolves vs. Tottenham

Tottenham +120

Tottenham 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 games, and they have had some impressive results of late, including victories over Chelsea and Manchester City. Overall, Spurs are 14-3-8 this season, putting them in 4th place for the time being.

Tottenham face a Wolves side that is 6-6-13 this year with a -17 goal differential and a -11.3 xGD on FBRef. Spurs fare much better in these categories with a +11 goal difference and +6.1 xGD, so there is really no doubt that Tottenham are the far superior side in this matchup. Wolves do have a home-field advantage, but they are a mediocre 4-2-6 in home matches, and their home crowd is unlikely to provide enough boost to make up for the talent gap.

Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +290
Draw +220

Aston Villa have been just a touch better than Crystal Palace this season, but the two teams are pretty evenly matched. Palace are just 4 points behind Villa in the table, and the more predictive xGD also has Villa slightly ahead at -8.4, compared to -11.3 for Crystal.

Palace are 6-9-9 on the year, giving them a loss rate of only 37.5%. They are an extremely pesky team, and even away from home, they are getting points from the majority of their matches with a 2-4-5 record. Villa are a below-average team in the EPL, and Palace should expect to at least get a draw from this match

Their outright at nearly 3-1 their odds is also extremely tempting.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Liverpool +135

Liverpool are having a very disappointing season overall, and their 11-6-7 record is currently only good enough for sixth place. United are 10 points ahead of Liverpool in the table, but Liverpool are actually ahead on xGD by 0.0, so perhaps the gap in points will close as the season winds down.

Liverpool’s home-field advantage could prove key in this game. Liverpool have been a much better team at home, boasting an 8-3-1 record and +11.3 xGD. Manchester United, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, amassing a 6-2-4 record with a -0.4 xGD.

Given the negative xGD, United could consider themselves a bit lucky to even have as many away points as they do. Liverpool should be able to control this game and win at Anfield.