Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 30
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Bournemouth at Leicester City
Leicester Moneyline (+100)
Leicester Halftime Moneyline (+155)
Leicester City and Bournemouth are both currently in the bottom three, but going by FBRef's expected goals (xG) model, Leicester are the much better side.
The Foxes sit a somewhat respectable 14th in expected goal differential (-12.1). While they've been one of the Premier League's most underwhelming sides this campaign, Leciester have also experienced some bad luck. They haven't been so bad that they should be in danger of the drop.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, deserve to be where in a relegation scrap. They rank last in the league in expected goal differential at a mark of -23.3. No other side has an expected goal differential worse than -16.8. The Cherries have been a relegation favorite all year, and despite showing solid form of late, they should be fighting an uphill battle Saturday at the King Power.
If the Foxes aren't careful, they're going to go down, and this match is a chance for them to grab a crucial three points against a fellow relegation candidate. With Leicester playing at home in their second game since Brendan Rodgers was canned, I think they come out of the blocks with their hair on fire. I like them to win (+100) and will also be taking them to win the first half (+155).
Arsenal at Liverpool
Liverpool Moneyline (+180)
If I told you before the season that the Matchday 30 clash between Liverpool and Arsenal featured one club going for the title and the other fighting for a spot in the top four, that would've made perfect sense. That's still happening, but the two sides have flipped roles, with the Gunners a surprise title contender and Liverpool going through a head-scratching year.
But despite everything that's gone wrong for the Reds this season, I like them at this +180 moneyline price.
Liverpool haven't won since a 7-0 mauling of Manchester United, losing three of four across all competitions and generating a scary-bad 1.2 xG combined over their last three matches. It's been ugly, and Arsenal are capable of making this recommendation look pretty silly. But prior to this recent downturn in form, Liverpool hadn't been that bad, and they're still fifth in the league in expected goal differential.
The Reds have been stout at Anfield, too. They've won the xG battle in four straight home matches. They defeated Manchester City at home earlier this year and put up a fight at the Emirates in the reverse fixture versus the Gunners, losing 2-1.
With their top-four hopes circling the drain, Liverpool will be desperate on Sunday, and Anfield should be up for it with the league-leaders coming to visit. I like the Reds to win this weekend's headline matchup.
Player Props
Bruno Fernandes to Score or Assist (-135): Should be on the ball plenty in a Saturday morning home match with Everton. His work on penalties and corners is a big boost to his goal/assist chances.
Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (+135): While Brighton have been excellent of late, the Seagulls have shipped 1.6 and 1.7 xG to Brentford and Bournemouth, respectively, in their past two. This match is -130 to go over 2.5 goals. Kane is Kane.
Granit Xhaka to Be Booked (+155): Xhaka has been well-behaved this year, getting only three yellow cards. But I think he'll find himself in some difficult positions against Liverpool and may have to take a tactical foul to halt a Liverpool break. Plus, he's always capable of losing his head.
