Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 32
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Jurgen Klopp's side keeps getting healthier -- Luis Diaz is now back in the squad -- and while the Reds still have plenty of issues, their attack is starting to look like what we all thought it would be this season.
In their past two games, Liverpool have amassed 3.9 expected goals (xG) against league-leading Arsenal and 2.7 xG versus Leeds -- per FBRef -- which has led to Klopp's bunch netting a total of eight goals across those two matches. I think the Reds keep rolling on Saturday in a cushy home matchup with Nottingham Forest.
Forest have allowed the fourth-most xG this season (51.1) and have been miserable away from home, letting in 36 goals in 15 away fixtures. They're about to face one of the toughest away venues in the Premier League -- maybe the toughest -- and it's a place where Liverpool have had some explosive outings this year, including nine goals against Bournemouth and seven versus Manchester United.
Still clinging to slim top-four hopes, Liverpool will have the pedal to the medal on Saturday and should overpower Forest. I think the Reds get at least three goals in this one.
Leicester City vs. Wolves
Leicester Moneyline (+145)
Leicester are running out of chances to stay in the top flight. Thankfully for them, there are a few other teams performing miserably this season -- including the aforementioned Forest side -- and Leicester are about to embark on a run of four straight winnable fixtures.
The time is now for the Foxes if they're going to avoid the drop, and I'm backing them to take three points on Saturday against Wolves.
For the season, these two teams are nearly even in xG differential, with Leicester (-12.8) holding a slight edge over Wolves (-13.3) despite Wolves garnering nine more points.
The Foxes are unquestionably in the worse form at the moment between these two clubs, losing 9 of their past 10 matches. But Leicester just played pretty dang well at Manchester City, actually winning on xG (2.3-1.6), and with Wolves a lock to stay up -- they're -9000 to avoid relegation -- this match is way more important for Leicester.
Overall, as the xG differential shows, these two sides are pretty even, so I'm taking the team that has a ton to play for and is at home.
Player Props
Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer (-130): I really love this one. As I laid out above, Liverpool could run rampant Saturday, and that obviously benefits Salah. He is on penalties and is red-hot right now, scoring seven times over his last six starts. I don't hate betting on him to score two-plus goals at +340.
Bukayo Saka Anytime Goalscorer (+120): Gotta get this in early as the Arsenal-Southampton match kicks off at 3:00 p.m. EST on Friday. Arsenal need to bounce back after two disappointing draws, and they can do just that in this friendly home matchup. The Gunners are -600 to win and -122 to go over 2.5 goals. Saka is their first-choice penalty taker and is due after scoring in only one of his past five league starts.
