Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 34
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Nottingham Forest at Brentford
Brentford Moneyline (-155)
Pretty much everything points toward Brentford being a much better side than Nottingham Forest.
The Bees sit seventh in the table by expected goal (xG) differential, per FBRef, while Forest ranks next to last. Forest have been miserable away from home, losing seven straight in the split and ranking dead last -- by a good distance -- in road goal differential (-32). Brentford, meanwhile, are tied for sixth in home goal differential (+13).
The only thing Forest have going for them is that this game means a lot more for them than it does Brentford; Forest are fighting for their Premier League lives while Brentford are destined for a midtable finish. But despite not having a ton to play for, Brentford are playing well of late, beating Chelsea, 2-0, at Stamford Bridge midweek and drawing 1-1 with red-hot Aston Villa last weekend in a match in which the Bees held a significant edge in xG (2.7-1.5).
All signs point to Brentford, and I'm taking them to get all three points on Saturday.
Wolves at Brighton
Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-178)
Brighton have been one of the best attacking sides in the league this year, and they're at home against a Wolves side that is just meh defensively.
By xG amassed, Brighton rank fourth in the league, generating 56.3 xG through 30 matches. They're legitimately one of the top sides in the Prem, checking in fourth in xG differential. Brighton have netted eight total goals over their last three home matches, and they've totaled at least 1.7 xG in 12 of their past 14 matches overall.
Wolves have shipped two-plus goals in three of their past four away fixtures, with the lone exception coming versus lowly Forest, and Brighton put three past them at Molineux earlier this campaign. They've allowed at least 1.8 xG in each of their past four road matches against teams in the top nine of the table.
The -178 juice isn't fun, but I like Brighton's chances to score at least two on Saturday. And I don't hate them at +200 to go over 2.5 goals.
Player Props
Ivan Toney Anytime Goalscorer (+110): This correlates with the Brentford ML bet. Toney is the Bees' top dog, notching 19 league goals. No other Brentford player has more than six. He's an excellent penalty taker -- cashing six of his seven attempts from the spot in EPL action -- and should have chances to score against Forest's shoddy defense.
Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer (-105): With in-form Newcastle at home versus the last-placed side, I'm loving the chance to get Isak at close to even-money odds to score in the Magpies' Sunday home match with Southampton. Isak came off the bench midweek, so he should be rested and ready to roll for this one. Newcastle have scored multiple goals in seven of their past eight matches, with Isak racking up seven goals in that span, and both can keep rolling in this matchup.
