Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 35
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Leeds at Manchester City
Man City Over 2.5 Goals (-154)
We had a nice weekend last week. Let's do it again.
This match should be a bloodbath.
Manchester City are soaring while Leeds are really struggling. Leeds have been leaking goals, conceding multiple goals in 9 of their previous 11 fixtures (in all competitions). They've allowed five goals to Crystal Palace and four to Bournemouth in that span, so it's not just the big boys who are giving them fits.
City are probably the last team in the world you want to play when you're struggling on defense, and they are on fire right now. City have scored three-plus goals in 9 of their last 11 outings, amassing a comical 40 goals over those 11 matches.
The only thing Leeds have going for them is that this match comes right before City faces Real Madrid next week in the Champions League semifinals. City could be looking ahead, may take their foot off the gas if they jump out front and/or might rest some key players. But even if all those things happen, City still have a good chance to score a bunch of goals.
Manchester United at West Ham
West Ham and Draw (-145)
In terms of the table, there's a canyon between these two sides, but going by expected goal (xG) differential -- per FBRef's xG model -- these two aren't that far apart.
By xG differential, Manchester United are 6th while West Ham sit 10th. West Ham have been pretty unlucky this campaign and deserve to be solidly midtable instead of flirting with relegation. United, meanwhile, are fortunate to be in a Champions League spot.
Something else going in the Hammers' favor is their recent home form coupled with the Red Devils' away form.
United have been meh in their travels. They have a -10 goal differential in the split this year, which ranks 12th in the EPL, and they've won just 7 of their 17 road matches.
West Ham have been solid at home in recent matches, drawing with Arsenal and losing a tight 2-1 affair to Liverpool. With the Hammers not fully clear of relegation, they have a ton to play for.
I don't mind taking West Ham to win outright (+230) or the Hammers in the tie-no-bet market (+150), but my preferred way to bet this match is West Ham and Draw in the double-chance market.
Arsenal at Newcastle
Newcastle Moneyline (+145)
Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (+104)
The headline match of the weekend sees Arsenal heading up north to take on Newcastle at St. James' Park.
Newcastle have been outstanding overall this year and are nearly a lock to be playing in next season's Champions League. The Magpies' performances at St. James' Park are a big reason for their success this campaign as they've enjoyed one of the best home advantages in the league.
Newcastle are second in xG differential at home, and they've conceded just 11 times through 16 home matches -- a trio of which came in 3-3 draw against Manchester City back in August. Newcastle have scored 13 goals over their last four home EPL outings, including 6 against Tottenham and 2 versus Manchester United. They've suffered only one home defeat in league play.
Arsenal are having a very good season, as well, but Newcastle (+27.5) nearly edge the Gunners (+28.3) in xG differential for the year. Arsenal have struggled in some of the league's toughest away venues, allowing 3.9 xG at Anfield, 1.7 xG at Goodison, 1.8 xG at Elland Road and 2.5 xG at City. They might also be sans both of their first-choice center-backs due to injury.
I think Newcastle take all three points on Sunday, and I like their chances to bag multiple goals. If you're not as bullish as I am, you can opt for Newcastle at -120 in the tie-no-bet market.
Player Props
Ilkay Gundogan to Score or Assist (-105): In a soft matchup with Leeds, City are a logical place to look for goalscorer and goal-or-assist props. You'll have to swallow sizable juice for most of their attacking players. Gundogan is the exception. He hasn't been getting forward as much of late but has still taken at least one shot in eight straight matches across all competitions. City will surely dominate possession against Leeds, giving Gundogan opportunities to push forward into dangerous areas.
Alexander Isak to Score or Assist (-120): Arsenal haven't kept a clean sheet in eight consecutive matches, and they could be without both William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães after Gabirle limped off Wednesday against Chelsea. That would enhance an already good matchup for Isak, who has 10 goals and an assist over 12 EPL starts.
Granit Xhaka to be Booked (+230): Amazingly, Xhaka has only four cards this season in Premier League play -- also has four in six Europa League starts -- but three of the four have come in away matches. Arsenal will probably be without the ball more than usual, and it should be a high-energy match -- two things that could lead to situations that end with Xhaka getting booked. I'm happy to roll the dice on it at this +230 number.
