UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: Fight Night 6/20/20
Combat sports are one of America's longest-standing active sports to wager on. This was evident throughout the late-1900s as boxing took the sports world by storm. From Muhammed Ali to Mike Tyson, several stars were born, and Americans around the country placed bets on who would win boxing matches. Nowadays, with boxing much smaller than it was throughout the 1900s, mixed martial arts has taken the lead as America's favorite combat sport.
By far, the largest and most successful MMA organization in North America is the Ultimate Fighting Championship, commonly known as UFC. The UFC lays claim to the best mixed martial artists in the world and is showcased on both cable and pay-per-view events every month. As one of the first sports to return with compliance of social distancing, UFC daily fantasy is now live on FanDuel.
numberFire is always your best place to prepare for the upcoming UFC card. In addition to this helper, if you'd rather bet the fights outright on UFC odds, Barry Cohen has you covered with his betting guide for his favorite wagers on Saturday night's card. Jim Sannes also has an analytical preview of the card to get all the betting odds, stats, and info you need to round out your lineup.Jim and I also sat down on Wednesday for the latest UFC edition of The Heat Check Fantasy Podcast to dive even deeper into this UFC slate.
With those tools at our disposal, let's break down the UFC Fight Night card scheduled for Saturday night in Las Vegas, NV:
MVP Considerations
Curtis Blaydes ($23): Blaydes might be the most clear MVP option we've had yet on a slate on FanDuel, and he checks every box this weekend. If you are looking for a finish, Blaydes is far and away the best bet, currently listed at -250 on FanDuel Sportsbook for a knockout or submission, which is the top marker on the slate. If this fight ended up going the distance, Blaydes has the best rate of FanDuel points per minute (not including win bonuses) of any fighter -- in large part due to his 6.63 takedowns per match. No one besides the fear-imposing Francis Ngannou has defeated Blaydes inside the octagon, and as the current moneyline odds reflect, Alexander Volkov is unlikely to be the first.
Bobby Green ($19): Leaving Blaydes and the MVP category is where this slate begins to become interesting. UFC fan favorite Clay Guida will get plenty of bets as a large underdog, but Bobby "King" Green is in an ideal buy-low spot here. Green actually out-struck Drakkar Klose and did the same to Francisco Trinaldo but lost two really poor decisions. Green is 1-5-1 in his last seven fights as a result. But those were top-20 opponents, and the veteran Guida has not had a top-20 win since 2011. Green sees a significant step back against Guida in both danger and volume, with Clay throwing less than 40 strikes in four of his last five bouts. He is the best MVP pivot option, but the durable warrior Guida may make a finish tough to come by, as Green is just +170 to win by knockout or submission despite being a heavy moneyline favorite.
Mid-Priced Fighters
Frank Camacho ($16): Frank Camacho was someone in the discussion as a mid-tier fantasy play against Matt "Steamrolla" Frevola due to his 6.68 significant strikes per minute. He takes a huge step forward in expectations, now facing last-minute stand-in Justin Jaynes in this fight after Frevola's corner tested positive for COVID-19. It is somewhat concerning Camacho missed weight, but he owned up to it on his Instagram as what is assumed to be a diet issue, not a health issue. Camacho is now four inches taller and has four inches of reach on his new opponent. His size and volume should be too much to overcome without a full training camp for Jaynes, who is making his UFC debut Saturday.
Max Rohskopf ($16): This card is short on options for a quick result. When this card was released on FanDuel Sportsbook, no fighter besides Blaydes had better than a 40% implied chance to win by knockout or submission. We may have gotten a late gift with Rohskopf, who steps in to face longtime wrestler Austin Hubbard in the first fight on the card. His +120 submission/knockout chance odds are the second-best behind Blaydes', and the moneyline is trending Max's way, which now sits at -205 to win outright in his UFC debut. His five fights in FFC and Titan MMA were dominant, as watching all five, Rohskopf did not lose a second of the fights, holding top control most of the way. He is an affordable path to a finish on a card without many such paths.
Value Fighters
Josh Emmett ($15): Emmett would curse the inclination that there are minimal finishing potential opportunities on this card. He sees a tough top-10 opponent in Shane Burgos in the co-main on Saturday, but Emmett should be game. The craziest stat about Emmett -- he has a knockdown in each of his first eight UFC fights, which is far from a small sample size. Emmett has five inches of height and reach to overcome to get to Burgos, but at an underdog price here, his +210 knockout or submission odds are better than Burgos' (+310) and are the fifth-best such odds on the card.
Lyman Good ($14): Good is still projected to lose his fight as he's +104 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but from a fantasy perspective, he is the obvious side to back. At $18, Belal Muhammad has never eclipsed 100 strikes in a UFC fight and is currently +350 to win by knockout or submission. His opponent is $4 cheaper, and Good's odds to finish this fight currently sit at an intriguing +200. Muhammad is a talented fighter and may win outright via decision, but the path to victory includes plenty of points on FanDuel. Forget "good" -- Lyman is the best option we have in this pricing area to save some salary for Blaydes.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
