Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 10/3/20
It's always tough to follow up a big pay-per-view card, and that's what the UFC is tasked with this week. This event is a smaller 11-fight card that is headlined by a women's bantamweight fight, and there are no titles on the line.
While cards like these will likely attract less attention from the casual fan, they also present interesting betting values, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Holly Holm (-108) vs. Irene Aldana (-108)
A former bantamweight champion, Holly Holm has a bit of a reputation for underperforming to her abilities. She has shown she can fight with any woman in the UFC, but she owns just a 3-4 record across two weight classes since capturing the UFC gold from Ronda Rousey nearly five years ago. Irene Aldana, on the other side, has put together a 5-3 record since joining the UFC. But she has fought much weaker competition, while Holm has consistently fought the top dogs -- every single one of her MMA losses came at the hands of a UFC champion.
Holm also holds an advantage once we dive into the numbers. Neither fighter is averaging more than 0.50 takedowns per landed per 15 minutes, so this fight is likely to take place on the feet, where Holm averages a whopping 6.16 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to just 2.75 for Aldana. Holm does absorb 3.92 more significant strikes per minute, but her striking defense rate is actually 6 percentage points higher than Aldana's, and we need to keep in mind the level of competition faced between the two.
This fight is priced at -182 to go the distance, so Holm's active striking is likely to give her an edge. She is priced at +155 to win by points, which isn't far enough off of her -108 moneyline. Stick with the -108 on Holm to cash with any route to victory.
Germaine de Randamie (-134) vs. Julianna Pena (+114)
Speaking of the champions to defeat Holm, Germaine de Randamie is one of those as she controversially beat Holm to win the inaugural women's featherweight belt in 2017. Her only two losses inside the octagon have been to the current two-weight UFC champion, Amanda Nunes, and the most recent of those went all five rounds.
Across the octagon is Julianna Pena, who once looked like a future champion before falling by second-round submission to now-flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in January of 2017. Since then, Pena has had a baby and fought just one time, picking up a three-round decision victory over Nicco Montano.
Pena relies heavily on her strong grappling acumen, averaging 2.60 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the UFC. But she has actually submitted only one fighter in her professional career, and de Randamie has been submitted just once as a professional. Pena's last two fights both came against flyweights. She will be up against a much bigger fighter this time in de Randamie, who can fight at 135 or 145.
"The Iron Lady" is the rightful favorite in this fight, and even at -134, the value lies on de Randamie.
Court McGee (-136) vs. Carlos Condit (+116)
This fight is ugly.
Favorite Court McGee actually has the better recent form despite currently riding a two-fight losing streak and holding a 3-6 record over his past nine fights. Carlos Condit has lost five straight and has won just two of his past 10 bouts. That's a far cry from his days of parlaying a five-fight win streak into a title shot against Georges St. Pierre.
At 36 years old and carrying sub-40% striking accuracy rates, both of these fighters are clearly past their prime. With Condit winless in over five years, it's hard to have any confidence in him now, making McGee the rightful favorite and a solid bet at -136.
The fight is -200 to go the distance, and McGee winning by points does not provide much value at -125. But things get interesting when looking at the other routes to victory -- Condit has been submitted in three of his past four fights, and McGee averages 1.71 takedowns landed and 0.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. McGee has not picked up a submission victory since 2010, but against a aging Condit, his +1000 submission prop is worth a splash.