Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 29
Fresh off of a pay-per-view event, we have a 12-fight card upcoming in the UFC.
It's headlined by a featherweight bout between fourth-ranked contender Chan Sung Jung and eighth-ranked contender Dan Ige.
Other than that main event, the card lacks a lot of name appeal. However, we've got plenty of bets we can make, thanks to FanDuel Sportsbook, and that's what we're interested in here.
Which fights look like the most valuable to target this weekend?
Marlon Vera (-215) vs. Davey Grant (+172)
This bantamweight bout features the third-biggest favorite on the entire card, as Marlon Vera (18-7-1) looks to have a significant advantage over Davey Grant (11-4-0).
My model gives Vera a 64.5% chance to pick up the win, roughly equal value at his odds of -215. Notably, MMA Matrix has Vera ranked as their 17th-best bantamweight with Grant coming in 71st.
This is despite the three-fight win streak for Grant, compared to the 1-2-0 record over the past three bouts for Vera.
All four of Grant's losses have come by submission, and Vera has seven submission wins (and zero early losses).
Vera to win outright is a fair bet, per my model, but we can also look to Vera to win by submission at +600.
SeungWoo Choi (-150) vs. Julian Erosa (+122)
The odds are pretty tight in this bout between SeungWoo Choi (9-3-0) and Julian Erosa (25-8-0), and my model is actually preferring the underdog in this one.
Choi got off to a slow start in the UFC with two losses but has since recorded two unanimous decision victories. Erosa also had a slow start with three straight losses before bouncing back with three consecutive wins -- all three of which ended early, two of which ended in the first round.
Using each fighter's significant strike attempts per minute and the opponent's defense, Erosa should be projected for a top-five significant-strike-per-minute rate with Choi ranking in the bottom 10 on this card.
Erosa to win outright is the best expected value on the card, per my model.
Dhiego Lima (-176) vs. Matt Brown (+142)
My model is seeing value on Dhiego Lima (15-8-0) over Matt Brown (22-18-0) and gives him a 65.8% chance to pick up the win.
Brown has three fights since 2018 began and has a 1-2-0 record in those. Lima is 3-1-0 in that span but did most recently drop a fight against Belal Muhammad, currently the ninth-ranked contender in the welterweight division.
Notably, just 7 of Brown's 40 career fights have gone to a decision, compared to 10 of 23 for Lima.
If seeking a prop rather than Lima outright, Lima by points is the play. Nearly 58.0% of public picks at Tapology anticipate this fight to end that way, suggesting odds of -136. But Lima by points is available at +145 on FanDuel Sportsbook.