UFC Vegas 74: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. No matter your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout here.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs. Albazi, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Maxim Grishin (-142) vs. Philipe Lins (+116)

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

These former heavyweights should be a solid start to the night.

Philipe Lins is the stock ascending in this fight with a 2-0 start in this weight class behind him. Lins outwrestled Polish striker Marcin Prachnio in his divisional debut, and he was the latest of a growing number to knock out aging former title contender Ovince St. Preux earlier this year.

I don't think it's any coincidence that Maxim Grishin had a pair of fights with jiu-jitsu ace Jailton Almeida fall through. Almeida has since entered the top-10 rankings at heavyweight. This fight is much more in his wheelhouse.

Ultimately, I believe this fight comes down to whether Lins' wrestling against Prachnio can translate here to Grishin's 66% takedown defense. On the feet, Grishin's striking accuracy (52%) and defense (59%) are both excellent, and he's had a positive striking differential in every bout at 205 pounds.

With that said, Lins' 4 takedowns came on 11 attempts, so his efficiency wasn't there, and his striking defense (43%) was also poor against Prachnio. Grishin's 1.07% knockdown rate can significantly punish those mistakes.

Betting Verdict: I'm not jumping out of my chair to bet this number, but I do have Grishin closer to -150 to win. Prachnio's takedown defense (62%) was slightly worse, and he comfortably beat Lins on the striking stat sheet.

DFS Verdict: There's knockout upside -- and a fast one -- on both sides, but Grishin's win condition is tied to the place it would happen, and he hasn't been finished since 2016. Easy to prefer him at $17.

Luan Lacerda (-154) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear (+126)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Both of these fighters entered UFC as late-notice replacements, but likely only one stays put after Saturday.

Jiu-jitsu specialist Luan Lacerda was a popular underdog pick at UFC 283 in his home country of Brazil. While he failed to grab the submission that was forecasted given Cody Stamann's struggles in that department at times, Lacerda showed modest striking in a losing effort against the divisional stalwart.

Da'Mon Blackshear is two fights into his tenure, but both assignments still seem pretty impossible in hindsight. He was up in weight at 145 pounds against Youssef Zalal in a matchup of grapplers, and Farid Basharat (3-0 UFC) will vanquish several foes stronger than Blackshear in his UFC career.

The pick 'em odds are reflective of minimal data and a poor measuring stick for how these two stack up at entry-level bantamweight. Not only do I value Blackshear's level of competition higher, but he's the larger man in what figures to be a grappling battle; 10 of Lacerda's 12 pro wins are by submission, and 8 of Blackshear's 12 victories fit that description.

Betting Verdict: With pro finishing rates north of 75%, I actually like under 2.5 rounds (+148) in this bout. This number is a bit inflated with three UFC decisions when these two fighters were overmatched in previous bouts.

DFS Verdict: Blackshear's length edge could help boost what is near-equal striking efficiency on paper. He's also larger in grappling exchanges. This is a hold-your-breath affair, but I prefer "Da Monster" at $13.

Elise Reed (-134) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+110)

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

This is just one of those fights that have to happen. That's as kind as I'll be.

Elise Reed was submitted by Loma Lookboonme earlier this year. Lookboonme also crushed Jinh Yu Frey in a 2021 bout and isn't close to the strawweight rankings, so that gives you a better sense of what we're dealing with here. Frey was the rare knockout victim at women's 115 in her last bout, so this is truly a win-or-go-home affair for both ladies.

Of the two, Reed has a more defined "identity". She definitely prefers to strike given she's been finished from ground-and-pound strikes or a submission in all three losses. Her takedown defense (47%) is poor, so any fighter with the ability to wrestle can easily dispatch her.

We've seen some of that from Frey -- but definitely not a boatload. She rolled over Gloria de Paula with 9:33 in control time and defended all eight of Ashley Yoder's takedowns, but it's been poor striking efforts in three fights since.

I wouldn't bet this fight with any of my hard-earned U.S. dollars, but when Frey has that path to a wrestling victory and they're both poor strikers, it's not hard to envision an upset in a division that regularly spits them out.

Betting Verdict: I don't trust either of these fighters enough to bet on the outcome, and I'm right in line with the lofty -235 odds this fight goes the full distance.

DFS Verdict: DFS is the only reason we'd have to care here, but with the significant odds we see a full-length fight, this could be a low-volume dud in that realm, too. Frey's $14 salary isn't awful.

Jamie Mullarkey (-480) vs. Muhammadjon Naimov (+350)

Lightweight (155 pounds)

As stressful as it is to handicap UFC fights for a living, I relish in these breathers.

Jamie Mullarkey is 4-3 in arguably UFC's toughest division, so while I could quibble with a few things his profile holds, he's more than qualified for this job. Muhammadjon Naimov's one UFC-affiliated appearance was a decisive loss to Collin Anglin (0-2 UFC) at a lighter weight class. Naimov took this fight minding his next opportunity.

For instance, Mullarkey's 45% striking accuracy is lower than you'd like, but Naimov (41%) was less accurate against the weaker foe, Anglin. Mullarkey's 35% takedown accuracy is also kind of inefficient, but Naimov's 25% takedown defense during his appearance was horrid.

Mullarkey's -0.15 SSR isn't particularly strong, and he's been a guy I've been actively targeting for regression throughout his current three-fight winning streak. It'll just have to wait another day; the undersized Naimov is the card's largest underdog for good reason.

Betting Verdict: Naimov hasn't been professionally finished and Mullarkey has gone to a decision in back-to-back fights. That's helped increase the implied decision probability, and though not yet released, I'm showing value on Mullarkey by KO/TKO/Submission at anything better than +100.

DFS Verdict: As a decent contributor on FanDuel thus far, Mullarkey also has an 81.3% pro finishing rate. He's clearly a top MVP candidate at a card-high $23 salary.

John Castaneda (-144) vs. Muin Gafurov (+118)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

It's always peculiar when you get a short-notice replacement that has a shorter betting number than the guy he replaced.

That's Muin Gafurov, who is the bantamweight champion from UFC's "Triple-A affiliate", LFA. The master of sport in Sambo probably should have been in UFC. He lost a hard-luck decision on Dana White's Contender Series despite controlling Chad Anheliger (1-1 UFC) for upwards of seven minutes. That's the lone fight for his data capture.

With that said, John Castaneda has UFC experience worth considering. He's toppled Miles Johns (5-2 UFC) and two others, but his ascension took a hit in a knockout loss to Daniel Santos (who is still to come on this card) last fall.

Gafarov landed five takedowns with 41% accuracy in his lone UFC-affiliated bout, so it'll be a question of whether Castaneda's flimsy takedown defense stats (3-for-5 so far) translate to his toughest wrestling test yet.

Castaneda is a modest grappler and hasn't been submitted, but I just have a hard time not seeing Gafurov pile up takedowns when the aforementioned Santos went two of four in that department. Even more importantly, Castaneda's gas tank quickly faded as they wrestled, and the next time Gafurov gets tired or finished inside a cage will be the first time.

Betting Verdict: I'm not racing to the debutant in this spot, but I am showing value with a number closer to -125 on Gafurov. Only two of Castaneda's four UFC bouts have gone the distance, and Gafurov's finishing rate is 94.4%. I'm also showing a bit of value on under 2.5 rounds (+110).

DFS Verdict: If we're thinking under, it's probably a good spot to be for daily fantasy, but Gafurov's wrestling-heavy approach could limit the points available. He's still the side I will target at $14.

Don'Tale Mayes (-134) vs. Andre Arlovski (+110)

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

The single hardest thing about analytical MMA handicaps is what to do with aging guys like Andrei Arlovski.

"Pitbull" is 44 years old and coming off a loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima last fall. Amazingly, the striker is 6-2 in his last eight fights despite a -27 striking differential across those bouts, and the grappling is pretty much toast given how he fared against both de Lima and Tom Aspinall. Both scored easy submissions.

While Don'Tale Mayes isn't a true threat there, he did land six takedowns in a dominant stoppage of Josh Parisian, and that's enough to provide some doubt if Arlovski can stay upright.

Moreover, Mayes isn't an awful striker. He'll possess a four-inch reach advantage and hold a power edge considering Arlovski's last knockdown came in 2015.

When Arlovski has won, he's squeaked by other strikers on the feet. Not only could Mayes hold an advantage there, but he could also just totally dominate Arlovski if his power-wrestling attack -- which has been a one-off to this point -- does return.

Betting Verdict: The -134 number on Mayes here is solid. I've got him closer to -170 with a projection for multiple takedowns. However, I wouldn't blame anyone for passing on the potential he chooses to stand and strike.

DFS Verdict: Arlovski hasn't topped 85 FanDuel points just once since 2015. I can't see the reason for backing him over Mayes ($16) in that realm whatsoever.

Daniel Santos (-225) vs. Johnny Munoz (+180)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

This fight was canceled back at UFC 288 earlier this month, but the outlook is still the same.

Daniel Santos is a heavy favorite after besting aforementioned UFC winner John Castaneda in a wild shootout in his last fight. Santos' late-notice, decisive loss to Julio Arce is largely responsible for his -2.70 SSR and left questions before that, but he thoroughly answered them.

As for Johnny Munoz, he's still got plenty of pending questions. His pair of UFC wins have come over foes 0-2 -- and uninspiring -- against all others. He was knocked out quickly by Tony Gravely and put together a poor showing with a 2-for-16 effort when trying to land takedowns on Nate Maness (3-2 UFC).

Beating Castaneda isn't a final verdict on Santos' UFC viability, but it's quite a bit more than Munoz has to lean on in this spot. Munoz's 37% striking accuracy and 25% takedown accuracy are both poor, and it took him at least seven minutes to dispatch his two wins -- both since cut from UFC.

Given "Willycat" Santos has shown durability against two better fighters, I don't know what Munoz could offer to truly threaten his skill advantage showing up over the course of 15 minutes.

Betting Verdict: My model isn't very helpful here when Munoz's peripherals are pretty stellar from quick losses in his worst showings, so I'm staying away from a direct wager here.

DFS Verdict: Santos showed fantasy fireworks in his last bout, which, personally, was a tougher test. He's a strong MVP candidate at $21 in a division with the most wins by finish outside of heavyweight.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-114) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-106)

Welterweight (170 pounds)

I thought I was laughably wrong in Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos' last fight, but it appears EZDS was just that good.

Benoit Saint-Denis has won two straight bouts since his loss to Zaleski dos Santos, and in that fight, Saint-Denis was battered to a -82 striking differential. I thought there was a chance Benoit wasn't UFC-caliber, but EZDS appeared to just have made a statement.

The inactive Brazilian has fought just twice since the COVID break, so it's easy to forget that, and Abubakar Nurmagomedov -- as should be assumed by the last name -- is no pushover. Nurmagomedov just holds the least imposing version of the family's patented Sambo-heavy style.

His 53% striking accuracy, 66% striking defense, and 85% takedown defense are all exceptional. There isn't a lot of wasted movement in his wrestling-oriented approach, but his low FanDuel-point-per-minute rate tells the story of his inactivity. He's also yet to find a UFC finish.

Though Zaleski dos Santos' 62% takedown defense is gettable, I'm just banking on his resumé here. He's dispensed of top-shelf guys like Saint-Denis, Sean Strickland, and Max Griffin. Nurmagomedov's two UFC wins have come over opponents that are just a combined 1-4 against everybody else. It's hard to justify that gap in experience with tight peripherals.

Betting Verdict: Nurmagomedov's mediocre takedown accuracy (30%) leads to an expected accuracy of just 34% in this matchup. If that's the case and this fight takes place at a distance, EZDS should cruise. I've got him closer to -165.

DFS Verdict: This is a pick-your-horse pick 'em with identical $15 salaries, and that's Zaleski dos Santos for me. The decision-heavy background of these two isn't ideal, though.

Karine Silva (-230) vs. Ketlen Souza (+184)

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Though women's divisions are ripe for upsets more than any single men's one, I can never seem to call one correctly on a flawed profile like Karine Silva's. Maybe that changes on Saturday.

Silva is a true one-trick pony. Her -1.46 SSR is the result of getting outstruck in both UFC-affiliated appearances so far, and she's used come-from-behind submissions in both. That volume (3.9 submission attempts per 15) is the only redeemable part of a profile with frighteningly bad striking accuracy (26%) and defense (35%).

Therefore, I'm going to roll the dice on a number like Ketlen Souza's if I feel she can defend the grappling advances. At the very least, Souza has been scheduled for 65 minutes in her past three bouts and won all of them, going the distance and avoiding submissions against -- admittedly -- less dangerous grappling advances than Silva will provide.

In a tight fight, I'd really have to think, but the betting line here makes this fight a no-brainer to handicap. Silva was tiring into the second round of the Contender Series, and Souza has gone five full rounds while winning the Invicta FC title at 125 pounds.

The betting line putting over 2.5 rounds at -106 is all I needed. This fight solely favors Silva by one method -- a quick choke. Any other type of fight would favor the fighter coming back at +184. That's such a good number that I'm looking past the uncertainty here to bet it.

Betting Verdict: Souza's ML is one of my favorite value propositions on the board, but under 2.5 rounds (-120) could be a nice hedge for a Silva choke that also could cash if Karine fades as badly as she showed in her Apex debut.

DFS Verdict: A FanDuel score north of 100 points in a quick finish is absolutely on the table for Silva ($22), but I strongly prefer saving salary for Mullarkey and Santos with Souza ($9).

Tim Elliott (-188) vs. Victor Altamirano (+152)

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Tim Elliott has closed as a favorite in 12 of his 17 UFC bouts. He's won just 7 of those 12 bouts, so he's not exactly a strong guy in this position historically -- as a 7-10 UFC record would indicate.

In a division built on speed, the veteran is definitely long in the tooth, but he's got the definitive experience edge with a laundry list of flyweight's all-time greats. Elliott certainly was competitive enough with Khabib's division protegé, Tagir UIanbekov, to earn a decision win despite a -11 striking differential.

At this point, Victor Altamirano is likely his toughest test since a 2020 setback to Brandon Royval. Altamirano has amassed a +1.50 SSR against an underrated list of competition from "prospect vs. prospect" battles. This is his first veteran.

If you can stop Elliott's takedowns, he quickly becomes a limited striker and has just one career UFC win by submission. In his short time in the UFC, Altamirano has answered that challenge; he's defended 24 of 31 takedowns in a really solid sample.

Altamirano also has four pro wins by submission, and Elliott's takedown defense (61%) is significantly worse. I just don't sense the danger of Tim finishing the fight in either domain, but his own submission defense issues provide a path to a stoppage for "El Magnifico".

Betting Verdict: I'm not necessarily doing cartwheels to bet Altamirano's ML (+152), but I see value closer to a pick 'em here -- especially when this fight is -220 to go the distance and UFC judging is a total wild card.

DFS Verdict: I definitely prefer saving salary with Victor. As long as his takedown D holds, Elliott's 95.4 FanDuel points from his last bout were his best effort since 2017. His can't-fade ceiling at $12 just isn't there.

Jim Miller (-245) vs. Jesse Butler (+194)

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Jim Miller's quest to become UFC's all-time wins leader (25) just became a whole lot easier.

He was initially scheduled to face the tough, well-rounded Jared Gordon, but Gordon -- not as a huge surprise after a knockout blow last month -- pulled out of this fight on Wednesday. Enter Jesse Butler as his new last-minute foe.

Though it wouldn't have been against someone nearly as credentialed as Miller, Butler could definitely have had an eventual UFC career at his organic weight class (145 pounds). The regional submission wizard has 8 of his 12 pro wins that way.

The problem is Miller can still crack. He'd won three in a row before a setback to the capable Alexander Hernandez, and all dubs came via finish. Even in the loss to Hernandez, his striking defense (54%) was still more than good enough to stay in the fight and nearly win it with a late submission effort.

Butler will have a strength deficit when grappling, which is awful news considering Miller's 19 pro wins via submission. That's still probably his best chance when Miller comfortably handled Brazilian striker Nikolas Motta (1-1 UFC) in that realm.

"A-10" is a huge favorite on short notice for obvious reasons.

Betting Verdict: We won't likely have props on this fight until shortly before these fighters make the walk, but I'd take anything around plus money for a first-round Miller finish. This is right in his wheelhouse.

DFS Verdict: FanDuel's slate was reposted in light of Miller's new opponent, but he's still one of the best MVP candidates -- if not the best -- on the board at $21. I prefer him to Mullarkey.

Alex Caceras (-188) vs. Daniel Pineda (+152)

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Even above Mullarkey given the unknown, this is my most confident win pick on the board.

The ranked Alex Caceras is a great fighter, and I'm not even sure Daniel Pineda would stick with the promotion in the long run. Caceras' +1.24 SSR is well-supported by an excellent 64% striking defense, his 64% takedown defense has improved immensely, and he's even added two submission wins of his own in his last five fights.

Caceras lost three of his first four in UFC by submission, so if those woes are behind him, "Bruce Leeroy" has a seemingly limitless ceiling given the striking we know is excellent.

Pineda's kill-or-be-killed style just isn't a positive play in the long run. In San Antonio earlier this year, Tucker Lutz actively gave Pineda his neck twice, and "The Pit" converted the second mistake into a choke. Lutz hasn't had a positive second grappling in UFC and has been since cut, so it's not a glorious stamp of approval to beat him.

Against fringe-ranked competition, Caceras has won five of his last six fights and outstruck every single opponent. I would be shocked if Pineda's 48% striking defense or 48% takedown defense provided any resistance to his measured, calculated approach.

Betting Verdict: All 42 (!) of Pineda's fights have been finished before the final bell. He recklessly charges to keep the streak intact, so I don't mind a bet on Caceras by KO/TKO/Submission (+150) whatsoever.

DFS Verdict: With that unrelenting style and approach from Pineda, Caceras is a tremendous MVP candidate at $19. Don't let his low per-minute average fool you; he's topped 100 FanDuel points in three of his past four wins.

Kai Kara-France (-110) vs. Amir Albazi (-110)

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)

This fight is why I won't complain about the rest of the card. This pick 'em of flyweight contenders could produce a new challenger.

That would be Amir Albazi since Kai Kara-France was knocked out in his last fight, which was a title opportunity against Brandon Moreno. This is a significant step up in competition for Albazi, but the styles of these two make it pretty intriguing.

Kara-France is one of the most predictable fighters in the sport. He's a one-dimensional striker -- and a good one. His +1.13 SSR and 64% striking defense have now been tested at the top level, and his 87% takedown D might be his best skill. Thwarting 12 of Askar Askarov's 14 takedown attempts is what earned him that title shot in the first place.

However, Albazi (50% takedown accuracy) has been a much more efficient wrestler than Askarov (24%). Plus, Albazi's +1.07 SSR -- including a pair of knockdowns in his last bout -- is significantly better than Askarov's (+0.25).

On paper, the undefeated Albazi (4-0 UFC) is a tougher multi-faceted challenge than Askarov, who took KKF to a split decision. The lone kicker is Albazi's four UFC foes have just a combined six UFC-affiliated wins. It's definitely a weaker competition set than Kara-France's.

Data doesn't lie, though. "Don't Blink" Kara-France is 1-3 facing a fighter that averaged north of 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The lone exception was a come-from-behind win against Rogerio Bontorin where Bontorin nearly converted both first-round attempts before falling victim to the knockout blow.

Albazi (0.80 submission attempts per 15) can do that, but he's also the best striker that KKF has faced, by SSR, in UFC. Brandon Moreno (+0.36) doesn't even boast a strong mark there. It's a package that makes plenty of sense in a pick 'em despite significantly less UFC experience.

Betting Verdict: I likely will end up on Albazi's ML (-110) by Saturday, but with a bulk of tickets and cash coming in on the more well-known Kara-France, I can wait. I'm right in line with this fight to not go the distance (-140), too.

DFS Verdict: I'd be pretty stunned if Albazi's grappling efforts were thwarted and he also provided enough competition to make this fight worth stacking at elevated salaries. It's a pick-your-horse fight, but I prefer Albazi at $17, who will surely be less popular, too.