GOLF

RBC Heritage: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Among a solid field, who sets up well for Harbour Town Golf Links, a course that rewards precision?

The long, demanding Augusta National is left in the limelight as we head to Harbour Town Golf Links, one of the shortest PGA Tour courses we see consistently, a place where driving accuracy historically has mattered a good deal.

It's a much different setup for this week's event from what we had last week, so what tweaks do we need to make for our setup for the RBC Heritage?

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

Harbour Town Golf Links Info & Key Stats

Par: 71
Distance: 7,191 (short: ~100 yards shorter than the average par 71)
Fairway Acres/Yard: 3.1 (narrow: PGA average is 4.1)
Average Green Size: 3,700 square feet (tiny: ~62% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa trivialis overseed
Stimpmeter: 11.5
Past 5 Winning Scores: -19, -22, -12, -12, -13
Past 5 Cut Lines: -2, -4, Even, Even, -1
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate

Wind is pretty much a constant at Harbour Town Golf Links. We historically see winds sitting in the 10-to-15-mile-per-hour range, and with gusts, we see scores stay lower than we have in the past two years.

The tight fairways and hole designs occasionally take driver out of the hands of the longer hitters, so gripping and ripping isn't always the answer. That makes it extremely hard to separate off the tee and gain strokes there (datagolf shows Harbour Town to be the second-hardest course to gain strokes off the tee on Tour and ranks second-lowest in average drive distance behind just Pebble Beach).

Driving accuracy matters in the sense that shorter, more accurate hitters are viable this week. Missing the fairway isn't that penal. Likewise, gaining strokes around the green is pretty easy.

The goal, then, is playing the right shots off the tee and from the fairway. From there, putting does a lot to separate the scoring splits at the top of the leaderboard.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The most recent winners in the field are Stewart Cink (200, 2004, 2021), Webb Simpson (2020), Cheng-Tsung Pan (2019), Satoshi Kodaira (2018), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2010, 2015), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013), Brandt Snedeker (2011), Brian Gay (2009), and Davis Love (1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003).

The following golfers have at least 8 rounds at Harbour Town Golf Links with an adjusted strokes gained average of at least 1.5, via DataGolf: Patrick Cantlay (+2.11), J.T. Poston (+2.03), Luke Donald (+1.83), Abraham Ancer (+1.79), Jim Furyk (+1.79), Matt Kuchar (+1.72), Webb Simpson (+1.62), Alexander Noren (+1.61), and Maverick McNealy (+1.56).

Win Simulations

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Patrick
Cantlay
$11,500 6.6% 34.6% 80.8% +1700
Cameron
Smith
$11,900 6.4% 35.1% 80.6% +1500
Justin
Thomas
$12,000 5.4% 32.4% 81.0% +1300
Daniel
Berger
$10,900 4.4% 28.9% 79.5% +3100
Collin
Morikawa
$11,800 3.8% 24.7% 74.0% +1300
Sungjae
Im
$11,200 2.6% 19.5% 70.3% +2000
Shane
Lowry
$11,400 2.5% 21.5% 74.1% +2000
Russell
Henley
$10,500 2.4% 21.4% 73.7% +3800
Matt
Fitzpatrick
$10,800 2.4% 19.9% 72.9% +2000
Tyrrell
Hatton
$10,100 2.3% 18.4% 72.0% +3700
Billy
Horschel
$10,400 1.9% 17.4% 70.0% +4200
Alex
Noren
$9,700 1.9% 16.7% 69.2% +5000
Corey
Conners
$11,100 1.8% 16.5% 69.9% +2600
Webb
Simpson
$10,700 1.7% 15.2% 68.0% +3100
Harold
Varner III
$9,700 1.6% 13.3% 64.1% +4500
Dustin
Johnson
$11,700 1.5% 15.6% 69.5% +1700
Joaquin
Niemann
$10,600 1.4% 13.9% 66.4% +3200
Maverick
McNealy
$9,800 1.4% 13.6% 67.5% +5000
Tom
Hoge
$9,300 1.4% 12.8% 64.1% +8000
Tommy
Fleetwood
$10,300 1.3% 12.4% 65.6% +4200
Ian
Poulter
$9,200 1.3% 13.4% 63.6% +8500
Kevin
Na
$9,900 1.3% 12.7% 64.0% +5000
Mackenzie
Hughes
$8,400 1.2% 10.6% 60.8% +10000
Jordan
Spieth
$11,000 1.2% 12.6% 63.2% +3700
Matt
Kuchar
$9,600 1.2% 11.1% 63.7% +5000
Aaron
Wise
$8,900 1.2% 12.0% 62.4% +10000
Adam
Hadwin
$9,500 1.1% 12.3% 62.7% +6500
Cameron
Tringale
$9,000 1.1% 11.0% 60.9% +8000
Troy
Merritt
$8,300 1.1% 11.4% 61.8% +9500
Mito
Pereira
$9,400 1.1% 11.9% 62.1% +8500
Brian
Harman
$9,600 1.1% 11.2% 63.5% +5500
Chris
Kirk
$9,500 1.1% 10.8% 63.2% +6500
Jason
Kokrak
$9,900 1.0% 9.2% 58.5% +6500
Erik
van Rooyen
$8,700 1.0% 10.2% 60.4% +9500
J.J.
Spaun
$9,200 0.8% 8.9% 57.4% +10000
Pat
Perez
$7,800 0.8% 11.0% 62.5% +14000
Sebastian
Munoz
$8,900 0.8% 8.4% 57.1% +10000
Siwoo
Kim
$10,000 0.8% 9.2% 57.4% +5500
Kevin
Streelman
$9,400 0.8% 10.2% 61.5% +8000
Denny
McCarthy
$8,600 0.8% 9.4% 59.4% +9500
Brendon
Todd
$8,400 0.8% 10.1% 61.8% +10000
Russell
Knox
$9,000 0.7% 8.2% 58.5% +9500
Adam
Long
$7,800 0.7% 7.4% 54.2% +28000
Charles
Howell III
$9,100 0.7% 8.7% 59.8% +9500
Lanto
Griffin
$8,100 0.7% 7.5% 55.6% +11000
Brian
Stuard
$8,000 0.6% 9.4% 60.7% +13000
Kyoung-hoon
Lee
$8,000 0.6% 7.7% 54.6% +13000
Kevin
Kisner
$9,800 0.6% 7.5% 55.2% +4500
Joel
Dahmen
$8,300 0.6% 8.3% 59.0% +13000
Cameron
Young
$9,300 0.6% 7.1% 54.7% +10000
Luke
List
$9,000 0.6% 7.3% 57.6% +9500
Andrew
Putnam
$7,400 0.6% 6.9% 53.4% +19000
Alex
Smalley
$8,000 0.5% 6.7% 54.9% +16000
Patton
Kizzire
$8,800 0.5% 6.8% 56.1% +9500

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets

I'm keying on Collin Morikawa (+1300), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000), and Daniel Berger (+3100) in the betting market this week at the top, but this week is volatile, historically, and so it's a week to take shots on longer odds, too.

Russell Henley (+3800), Kevin Na (+5000), and Adam Hadwin (+6500) are targets for me in the longer range.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the RBC Heritage

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Collin Morikawa (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1300) - Collin Morikawa's game is built on precision, and that's the test at Harbour Town. Morikawa ranks in the 94th percentile or better in fairways gained and adjusted strokes from approach. He was seventh here last year while ranking second in strokes gained: tee to green.

Daniel Berger ($10,900 | +3100) - Berger's game is right for Harbour Town. He ranks last on Tour in driver apex height, and he is accurate off the tee while also offering 99th-percentile adjusted iron play in the field. Berger has finished 33rd, 3rd, and 13th the past three years here.

Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,500 | +1700) - Easiest stud to forget about this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,800 | +2000) - Great at Carolina courses and in the wind.
Russell Henley ($10,500 | +3800) - Accurate off the tee with the best irons in the field. Great setup for Henley.

Mid-Range Picks

Kevin Na ($9,900 | +5000) - If we can downplay off-the-tee numbers, then Kevin Na gets in the mix. Na ranks in the 9th percentile there but is 70th percentile in irons and at least 80th percentile in both short game stats. In total, his fairway-through-green numbers are 94th percentile while rating out as an accurate option.

Adam Hadwin ($9,500 | +6500) - Hadwin gets the accuracy-and-irons bump this week. He's a strong poa putter who ranks in the 87th percentile in strokes gained: fairway through green among this field. He has finished top-10 in three straight starts, highlighted by a T9 at THE PLAYERS.

Others to Consider:
Alexander Noren ($9,700 | +5000) - Top-notch short game and putting; three-straight top-30s here.
Tom Hoge ($9,300 | +8000) - Was super hot until a minute ago; accurate off the tee with 91st-percentile irons.
Ian Poulter ($9,200 | +8500) - Will always get bumped up at a course like this; four top-15s in past four years here.

Low-Salaried Picks

Russell Knox ($9,000 | +9500) - Knox is one of the best ball-strikers in the field (90th percentile) and the field leader in greens in regulation gained. The short game lags, but he's a really accurate driver (96th percentile in fairways gained). He's due for putting regression (while still being a bad putter, to be clear). Knox lost his form at Harbour Town (three straight missed cuts) after four top-20s in five before that.

Erik Van Rooyen ($8,700 | +9500) - One of the most balanced drivers in the field (72nd percentile in distance gained and 73rd percentile in fairways gained), Van Rooyen is also 92nd percentile in adjusted strokes gained: approach. Van Rooyen finished 21st here in 2020 in his lone start.

Others to Consider:
Aaron Wise ($9,000 | +10000) - Has 92nd-percentile ball-striking to get himself in good positions here.
Brian Stuard ($8,000 | +13000) - Dead last in distance, first in fairways gained; putting regression candidate; top-20 in two of past three years.
Adam Long ($7,800 | +28000) - Good long-term golfer who is accurate off the tee and a great putter.