PGA Betting Guide for the RBC Heritage
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the RBC Heritage based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
Another solid field tees it up at Hilton Head this week, with some of the biggest names in the sport leading the way and plenty of midrange options to choose from. Historically Harbour Town has befuddled many a Tour pro, with its tiny greens and windy weather leading to some truly off the wall winners, including Satoshi Kodaira, Cheng-Tsung Pan, and last year's Stewart Cink.
This is a Pete Dye set up so iron play and shot shaping are essential. Given the variety at the top of the leaderboard in years past and the relative unimportance of an elite driving skill, we'll forego most of the top of the board and look for value elsewhere.
For more info on Harbour Town Golf Links along with this week's key stats and Brandon Gdula's win simulations, check out his article.
At the Top
None
Value Spots
Russell Henley (+2900) - Henley has been in good form for much of the last two years with very little to show for it. He folded on Sunday at the Wyndham Championship in the fall and stumbled through two listless Playoff events, but he's been quite good again since the fall and has remained steadfast in the face of some pretty gutting defeats. Wyndham aside, he also lost in a playoff at the Sony Open to start the year. Yet he's remained competitive even without his best stuff some weeks, finishing 14th, 33rd, 33rd, 13th, 13th, and 30th in the weeks since. The two best finishes came on bermuda greens, Henley's bread and butter. He's also been one of the best approach players in the world over the past 18 months, and he brings good memories of his ninth-place finish here last year.
Sungjae Im (+2900) - Another bermuda fan with solid form so far this season. A win at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in October kicked off his season, and he's found the top 10 four times since then, including last week at Augusta. He was 13th here last year after missing the cut in his first two attempts, but 2019 was his first full season on Tour, and in 2020, this was the second event out of the play stoppage and the famously busy Sungjae was all out of his rhythm. The setup is right for him, and building off a strong week at Augusta, he has a great shot at his third PGA Tour victory.
Si Woo Kim (+4100) - Always intriguing on a Pete Dye course, Kim arrives in the midst of a remarkable run of consistency, missing just four cuts in the past 14 months. This season he has just one top 10 but has been 11th three times and 13th once. If a few balls roll differently, his current form looks even stronger. We've seen Si Woo get there and win a golf tournament before, and that type of upside is well worth the 41/1 here.
Long Shots
Alexander Noren (+5000) - Undoubtedly peeved to have been excluded from The Masters and eager to win his spot back, Noren is available for the shortest odds of any golfer who was not at Augusta last week. He's been playing terrific of late, finishing 12th at the Valspar Championship, 26th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 5th at the Honda Classic, 48th at the Genesis Invitational, and 6th at the Phoenix Open. His record at Harbour Town is fine, with ho-hum finishes of 28th, 21st, and 25th the past three years while in the midst of a downturn in overall form. Back to playing well and memories as a top 10 golfer in the world once upon a time, Noren can actually win on the PGA Tour on this type of track. We'll hedge with Top-10 Finish (+550).
Denny McCarthy (+9500) - McCarthy is consistently among the best putters on Tour, and the overall game has been pretty solid this season. He has just one missed cut since the Shriners in early October, and he has seven top 20s to his name for the 2021-22 season. He was 13th last year and 33rd in 2019, and his touch on the greens usually means he's one good ball-striking week away from really contending. He's available for a nice return for a Top-20 Finish (+410), which he's shown he can do even if he's not flushing it.
