5 MLB Bounce-Back Candidates Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Miami Marlins

LD%: 22.2% | Hard%: 32.3% | BABIP: .269 | Expected BABIP: .314 | ISO: .075 | Expected ISO: .173

To say it was a rough season for Adeiny Hechavarria might be an understatement. Just one year after posting 3.1 fWAR, the Marlins shortstop finished the season with just 0.7 fWAR, hitting .236/.283/.311 with a .256 wOBA and 56 wRC+. In 2015, Hechavarria hit .281/.315/.374 with a .298 wOBA and 87 wRC+. He wasn't the best hitter on the Miami Marlins the year before, but 2016 was certainly a drop off.

However, a closer look at Hechavarria's stats shows a BABIP that was among the lowest in the majors among qualified hitters, coming in at 15th-worst, and an MLB-worst .075 ISO. But, Hechavarria's batted ball statistics tell a different story. His 22.2% line-drive rate isn't spectacular, but it still was above the 2016 league average of 20.7%. Similarly, Hechavarria's 32.3% hard-hit rate was above the league average of 31.4%.

Simply put, Hechavarria was getting really unlucky, and it showed. Hechavarria had the largest difference in expected ISO and actual ISO among all qualified major leaguers, and he had the third-largest difference in his expected-minus-actual BABIP.

Steamer projections peg Hechavarria to hit .263/.308/.355 with a .285 wOBA and 75 wRC+, while posting 0.7 fWAR next season. So while he may never reach the highs of his 2015 season, there's certainly a good chance Hechavarria improves a good chunk upon his unlucky 2016.