MLB

5 MLB Bounce-Back Candidates Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Ari Ross  —  @aross50 Dec 15th, 2016
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Yonder Alonso, 1B, Oakland Athletics

LD%: 22.5% | Hard%: 32.3% | BABIP: .284 | Expected BABIP: .316 | ISO: .114 | Expected ISO: .173

Yonder Alonso did not have nearly as bad of a season as Hechavarria -- hitting .251/.316/.367 with a .299 wOBA and 88 wRC+ -- but with nearly identical batted-ball stats to the Marlins' shortstop, Alonso could potentially be in for some improvement in 2017, as well.

In 2016, Alonso's BABIP was 16 points below the league average of .300 and 17 points below his career average, while both his hard-hit rate and line-drive percentage stood above the league averages. Similarly, his ISO jumped from .099 to 0.114 from 2015 to 2016, but it still was a few points below his career ISO.

Alonso was a bit unlucky, leading to a 32-point difference between his expected BABIP and actual BABIP, and he had a 59-point difference between his expected ISO and actual ISO. With Steamer projections pegging a 17-point increase in Alonso's BABIP, back to his career average, the Oakland Athletics' first baseman should see some improvement in 2017.

With the 17-point increase in his BABIP, Steamer projects Alonso to hit .272/.339/.400 with a .322 wOBA and 104 wRC+, a pretty substantial improvement for the first baseman.

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