5 MLB Bounce-Back Candidates Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays

LD%: 20.1% | Hard%: 41.1% | BABIP: .283 | Expected BABIP: .301 | ISO: .204 | Expected ISO: .244

Kendrys Morales posted among the top hard-hit rates in baseball last season, yet he had a below-league average .283 BABIP and a .204 ISO that ranked 50th in the major leagues. Morales hit .263/.327/.468 with a .339 wOBA and 110 wRC+ -- certainly not a bad season, but a decline from previous years.

Yet, the Toronto Blue Jays signed Morales to a 3 year, $33 million contract earlier this offseason, and perhaps they were onto something. While his hard-hit rate may regress, it's still astronomically high and points to some improvement next season. Morales' expected ISO, based on the regression, is 40 percentage points higher than his actual ISO. Similarly, even with a below-league average line-drive percentage, such a high hard-hit rate leads to an expected BABIP 18 percentage points higher than it was in actuality.

Morales should have a better performance in 2017, even though he's another year older. Yes, his astronomically high hard-hit rate and his HR/FB ratio will likely regress, but he should put together a decent season. Steamer projects a modest improvement -- a .265/.331/.468 slash with a .341 wOBA and 112 wRC+. If Morales can keep up his high hard-hate rate, though, a larger improvement is possible, all while Morales turns 34 in mid-June.