5 MLB Bounce-Back Candidates Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
LD%: 21.5% | Hard%: 36.1% | BABIP: .303 | Expected BABIP: .310 | ISO: .147 | Expected ISO: .204
It's not an even year, but the National League West should still be very afraid. Somehow, after posting 4.0 fWAR this past season, Buster Posey might actually improve this upcoming season, returning to his 2015 form. In 2015, Posey posted a 5.5 fWAR, while hitting .318/.379/.470 with a .363 wOBA and 136 wRC+, his second-best season as a pro.
Posey suffered a bit at the plate in 2016, hitting .288/.362/.434 with a .341 wOBA and 116 wRC+. His peripherals, though, tell a different story. His line-drive percentage was above the league average, and right around his career average, while his hard-hit rate jumped a few percentage points from previous years. Further, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) dropped almost three percentage points below his career average. On top of that, his BABIP was a career-low mark, and his ISO was the second-lowest clip of his career, with only his injury-plagued 2011 season topping it.
While he might not fully return to his 2015 form or even his 2012 MVP form, Posey is going to be better next season, and the San Francisco Giants will reap the benefits. Steamer projects Posey to hit .300/.370/.466 with a .357 wOBA and 127 wRC+, while posting a 5.1 fWAR. Those are numbers that will surely please Giants fans and strike fear into National League West pitchers (minus Clayton Kershaw, of course).
