MLB

Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award

John Stolnis  —  @johnstolnis Jun 7th, 2018
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Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Odds: 12/1

Slowly but surely, Aaron Nola has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies' ace has been incredible in 2018, with the third-highest fWAR (2.4) in the league, behind Scherzer and deGrom.

He has pitched 78.1 innings and has a 2.18 ERA that is third-lowest in the NL and a 2.62 FIP that is fourth-lowest. His strikeout rate is a bit lower this season (24.9%) than last (26.6%), but he's decreased his walk rate from 7.1% to 6.1% and opponents are hitting a microscopic .198 against him, leading to a 0.93 WHIP.

The biggest difference for Nola this year is his ability to get out left-handed hitters. Lefties are batting just .240/.283/.238 against him this campaign, light years better than last year's .255/.325/.415 clip. That's all thanks to an improved changeup, a pitch he's thrown 22.7% of the time, by far a career high.


It is that pitch that has catapulted him into being one of the elite starters in the NL.

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