Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Odds: 12/1
The New York Mets' Jacob deGrom has had yet another phenomenal season, ranking second in fWAR (3.0) among qualified starters this season and posting an NL-best 1.49 ERA with the league's second-best FIP (1.94) in 72.1 innings.
His 33.9% strikeout rate is second only to Scherzer's mark, as is his strikeout rate-to-walk rate of 26.6%. That ability to whiff batters while not giving them free passes has helped him hold hitters to a .204 batting average so far this season and a WHIP of 1.04.
deGrom has always been good, but this has been, by far, his best season. In 2015, he made 30 starts and had a 2.54 ERA, 2.70 FIP and 2.92 xFIP, with an fWAR of 5.2. deGrom is already more than halfway to that fWAR, and he's been the stingiest pitcher in the league in terms of giving up homers, with a league-low home-runs-per-nine rate of 0.37.
Remarkable 2018 Jacob deGrom stats:
Has allowed one run or less in 8 straight starts (franchise record)
Opponents are 6-51 (.118) with RISP
Opponents are 0-12 with 9 Ks with the bases loaded
Most remarkable stat of all:
Opponents have won 7 of the last 9 games he’s pitched
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) June 3, 2018
His health seems to be fine and, if you're looking to bet on someone other than the favorite, deGrom is the best choice. He's pretty clearly the second-best pitcher in the National League so far this year.
