Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Odds: 1/4
Washington Nationals starter Max Scherzer is the overwhelming favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award this season, and it's easy to see why. He is the most dominating and consistently excellent pitcher in the league, and his start on Tuesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays was just the most recent example of his dominance. In the 6th inning, Scherzer did this.
Nine pitches, nine strikes.
That’s immaculate stuff from @Max_Scherzer. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/92N71YjTbY
— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2018
Scherzer went 8 innings and gave up 2 runs on 5 hits with 13 strikeouts and no walks. He threw 99 pitches, 81 of which were strikes.
Most recent starts in which a pitcher threw at least 90 pitches, 81% of which were strikes:
- Scherzer (81/99) today vs. Rays
- Joe Musgrove (77/93) vs. Braves 7/5/17
- Roy Halladay (86/105) vs. Nationals 8/25/12
— Bill Baer 🌹 (@Baer_Bill) June 6, 2018
He not only leads all NL pitchers in Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), he's tops in all of baseball, at 3.8 fWAR. His 1.95 ERA is second only to Jacob deGrom in the National League, and he's No. 1 in FIP (1.49). He leads the league in both strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) with 13.95, and strikeout rate, whiffing 39.4% of all batters faced this season.
Max Scherzer This Season
- 1st in MLB to 10 wins
- 133 K in 87.2 IP
- 10+ K in 9 of 13 starts
Max Scherzer Tuesday
- 13 K in 8 IP
- 81 strikes on 99 pitches (82%), the highest strike pct of his career
- 3 K on 9 pitches in 6th inning pic.twitter.com/rnAEf3jHTb
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 6, 2018
Scherzer is on pace to strike out 340 hitters this season, which would be the most since Randy Johnson struck out 372 in 2001. There is no doubt he is the runaway favorite to win the Cy Young, barring a collapse in the second half or an injury that keeps him out of action for an extended period of time.
