2016 MLB Playoff Odds: Can Anyone Beat the Cubs?
The 2016 MLB playoffs are here.
They officially kick off on Tuesday, October 4 when the Baltimore Orioles (12th in our power rankings) travel to face the Toronto Blue Jays (6th) in the American League wild card matchup.
Then, on October 5, the New York Mets (11th) host the San Francisco Giants (7th) in a matchup between Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner.
Two of the four squads will advance to the final eight, but do any have a realistic shot to come away with the Commissioner's Trophy over the powerhouse Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox?
Here is what our algorithm, based on our nERD metric that indicates expected run differential over an average opponent, has to say on that matter.
| Team | World Series Win Odds | nERD | nERD Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 28.20% | 1.87 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 19.20% | 1.29 | 2 |
| Cleveland Indians | 13.60% | 0.93 | 4 |
| Washington Nationals | 11.90% | 0.98 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 10.80% | 0.91 | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4.60% | 0.83 | 6 |
| Texas Rangers | 3.30% | -0.17 | 16 |
| San Francisco Giants | 3.10% | 0.63 | 7 |
| New York Mets | 2.60% | 0.34 | 11 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2.60% | 0.13 | 12 |
Despite the best record in the American League, our numbers view the Texas Rangers as the weakest team in the playoffs.
The Cubs, though, are the clear favorites, and you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who can disagree with that.
