MLB

2019 MLB Playoff and World Series Staff Predictions

Our algorithm -- and everybody else -- is into the Astros this year. Do our writers agree?

At numberFire, we always let the stats do the talking. Almost always, that is.

We offer up playoff and championship odds on our team rankings page, which uses our nERD metric to derive a value on how good a team is. We'll include what our algorithm has to think about the upcoming baseball season, but we're also going to offer up insight from some of our contributors on how they think the season will shake out and which team will end up winning it all.

Do the humans love the Houston Astros as much as the computers do (yes, they do)? Let's find out (but seriously, everyone loves Houston).

numberFire Algorithm

AL East: New York Yankees (Playoffs: 90.9% | Division: 54.6%)
AL Central: Cleveland Indians (80.7% | 76.8%)
AL West: Houston Astros (92.4% | 81.0%)
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox (83.5% | 37.5%)
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays (42.5% | 7.9%)
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (66.2% | 44.5%)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (57.2% | 37.6%)
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (86.0% | 76.4%)
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers (54.7% | 33.4%)
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves (46.6% | 24.3%)

World Series Pick: Houston Astros (17.8% Championship Odds) over Los Angeles Dodgers (14.0%)

The algorithm gives the Astros the best World Series win odds of any team in baseball. They see the 'Stros as 1.59 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, known as nERD. The Dodgers are actually fourth in the MLB at 1.28. The Yankees (1.56) and Red Sox (1.37) grade out as better teams than any NL foe, via nERD.

Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: New York Mets
NL Wild Card: Washington Nationals

World Series Pick: Milwaukee Brewers over New York Yankees

The Brewers' bullpen has taken some hits this spring, but few teams are better equipped for a postseason run than Milwaukee. The offense has upper-level assets almost across the board, and once they build a lead, Josh Hader is capable of taking over an entire series.

It's a similar line of thinking for the Yankees. They've got a knock-yo-teeth-out offense coupled with a stout bullpen, and the addition of James Paxton gives them more depth in the rotation than they've had in recent years. Both the Brewers and Yankees play in tough divisions, but as long as they make it through unscathed, a date in the World Series could easily await.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor and Contributor

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Minnesota Twins
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs

World Series Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers over Houston Astros

Third time's a charm? The Dodgers have come up short the last two World Series, and the Astros are one of several formidable American League foes, but the Dodgers' rotation has the horses to beat anyone in a seven-game series. Of course, health remains a big "if," as they're already dealing with injuries to both Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill to begin the season. Still, they have the depth to weather the storm and are once again the team to beat in the National League.

Brett Oswalt, Editor and Contributor

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wild Card: Colorado Rockies

World Series Pick: Houston Astros over St. Louis Cardinals

Both the AL and NL East divisions are as loaded as ever. I, along with our projections, believe both are locks for three teams of 82-plus wins. In the American League, the Yankees edge out the Red Sox because of their bullpen, while the Rays sneak in the second wild card spot. Behind Tommy Pham, their lineup is above average when healthy, and the addition of Charlie Morton gives the staff a nice veteran presence. As for the NL, I'd expect it to come down to the final weekend of the season, when the Braves take on the Mets. Ultimately, Atlanta drops one of the three and allows the Rockies to steal the final spot, limiting the East to two, Bryce Harper's current and former clubs.

Thanks to the depth of the East, the Cardinals are players for the second-highest win total in the National League. With the Paul Goldschmidt signing, they boast two of the league's best -- yet quiet -- hitters in he and Matt Carpenter. The two finished last year 8th and 16th in wOBA, as well as 22nd and 8th in walk rate. The Redbirds' young starters ranked ninth in WAR (6.3) over the second half of 2018. They should take another step forward and do enough to get them to their first World Series since 2013.

It comes down to health for Houston. They boast one of the best rotations in the league, and our power rankings have them first. A healthy Carlos Correa (+2000) and George Springer (+1400) give them four potential MVP candidates, with Alex Bregman (+1400) and Jose Altuve (+2000) joining them in the top 12 at FanDuel Sportsbook. That should be enough to get them their second title in three years.

Austan Kas, Editor and Contributor

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Washington Nationals
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers

World Series Pick: Cleveland Indians over St. Louis Cardinals

The Indians have a lights-out starting rotation and two of the best hitters in the game in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The offseason acquisition of Jake Bauers was a good under-the-radar move, and the AL Central should be the weakest division in baseball. They'll need to find a way to replace some lost production in the bullpen, but that's the only blemish on the Indians' resume.

Michael Rondello, Contributor

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Pick: Houston Astros over Washington Nationals

Even though Washington lost Bryce Harper, they're still better than their division rivals with a potentially dominant rotation, led by Max Scherzer. Both the Cubs and Dodgers will remain on top of their divisions for at least another year; Los Angeles should bounce back from a second straight World Series loss with a 100-win season with the return of Corey Seager, who missed most of last season with an injury.

The defending champs will likely gain a lead on the Yankees early in the season, while New York starts the year with an uneven rotation without Luis Severino, who'll be sidelined for the first month of season with a shoulder injury. Boston will manage to answer any bullpen-related questions at the trade deadline and hold on to win the division. Meanwhile, the Indians will finish with under 90 wins, which would be their lowest win total since 2015, but still win their division without much competition from Minnesota, who'll finish in second place.

Ultimately, though, Houston is the best team in baseball and will win their second World Series title in three years. Their sixth-best scoring offense in 2018 will be improved with healthy years for Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the continued improvement from 24-year-old Alex Bregman, and the addition of Michael Brantley in the outfield. Their rotation will be without Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, but their one-two punch of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole is the best in the Majors and should pick up the slack along with help from some top pitching prospects, like Forrest Whitley and Josh James.

Tom Vecchio, Contributor and Podcaster

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Seattle Mariners
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Colorado Rockies
NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Pick: New York Yankees over Philadelphia Phillies

The Yankees' already strong bullpen got better in the offseason, and with the addition of a few role players, they have the depth to take on any team in the league.

Ryan Sheppard, Contributor

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Washington Nationals
NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs

World Series Pick: New York Yankees over Philadelphia Phillies

The New York Yankees have a great mixture of veteran sluggers and plenty of youth among their bats that have room to improve. In addition, they quickly moved to improve their rotation by adding James Paxton to the mix followed by re-signing a couple veterans. They have quickly become one of the more underrated rotations, especially once Luis Severino is healthy.

Brandon Gdula, Senior Editor & Analyst

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Houston Astros
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Oakland Athletics
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Pick: New York Yankees over Los Angeles Dodgers

It's easy to get set on the Astros (1.59 nERD) as the go-to World Series pick, but the Yankees (1.56 nERD) are in the same ballpark as Houston in overall talent. They do have a tough division with Boston and Tampa Bay lurking, but the Yankees have arguably a top-five (at least top-10) rotation and that elite bullpen to rely on. And, of course, they can mash offensively.