4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/29/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Blake Snell OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Back in mid-April, Snell posted nine strikeouts against the Blue Jays over six innings pitched, which seems to be the norm for him as he is carrying a whopping 36.4% strikeout rate this season. Simply amazing numbers for the southpaw who should be able to put on a repeat performance considering the Blue Jays come into this game with a 25.2% strikeout rate this season versus left-handed pitchers, which is 10th worst in the league.
These are great odds to grab right now considering Snell isn't taking his foot off the gas and is vying for another Cy Young.
Robbie Ray OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Despite this game being in Coors Field, Robbie Ray has looked sharp as of late and has a great strikeout prop to consider tonight.
A 30.4% strikeout rate for Ray this season is actually the second highest of any pitcher in action tonight, per numberFire's Matchup Heat Map. Ray has at least six strikeouts in each of his last six starts, with at least seven K's in four of the six. One of those starts came against this Colorado Rockies team, which shouldn't come as a surprise since the Rockies have a 26.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the fourth worst of any team in the league.
The hitting environment might not great for a pitcher overall and Ray might be known for his struggles with walking batters, but he is striking hitters out right now and that's what matters.
There's very modest juice on this prop, which is right in the wheelhouse for Ray and his superb strikeout rate.
Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+250)
The Detroit Tigers might be one of the weaker teams in the league, but we can look to them for a bit of power coming from a few players.
One of those players is outfielder Nick Castellanos, who is getting a positive park shift in his favor being in Baltimore tonight, to take on John Means, who is allowing 1.46 homers per nine innings and a 42.1% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season. Those numbers should play into the hands or bat of Castellanos, who comes in sporting a 38.2% hard-contact rate and a 41.4% fly-ball rate.
Camden Yards is known for being a solid hitters park and with the first pitch temperature set to be around 85 degrees, a conducive home run environment should be on tap tonight and help Castellanos push towards a home run and cash in on a favorable home run prop.
Eduardo Escobar To Hit a Home Run (+300)
It should come as no surprise that hitters at Coors Field are worth taking a look at for a home run prop, but Escobar might be as close to a sure thing as you can find.
Over the last two weeks, Eduardo Escobar has been absolutely obliterating baseballs and has five home runs in his last 12 games, with a 40.8% hard-contact rate and a 53.1% fly-ball rate. Those numbers are simply unbelievable and now riding this hot streak he finds himself in the best hitter's park in the league. The sportsbooks have taken notice as he is the some of the lowest odd (most likely) to hit a home run tonight, but still a shot worth taking considering how strong he has been over the past two weeks.
Escobar hits in the middle of the lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks and will be up against Jeff Hoffman, who hasn't seen significant time in the Majors since 2017 when he allowed 1.20 homers per nine innings to left-handed hitters.