5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/13/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,300)
The cheap Toronto Blue Jays offense returned some serious value with eight runs against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, and as usual, we want to target the offense against the O's again on Thursday.
Bereft of strong pitching options, Baltimore is starting right-hander Gabriel Ynoa tonight. Ynoa has pitched in 12 games this year (with three starts), only managing a 4.47 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which brings his career-average to 4.44. He's had an especially rough time as a starting pitching, with a 5.20 xFIP over his three starts this year and a 4.98 in four starts in 2017.
Rowdy Tellez has a modest .335 wOBA but a powerful .245 ISO on a 42.2% hard-hit and 37.8% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers at the major league level, and he continues to offer big upside tonight.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,800)
Sticking with the Blue Jays, Grichuk may not get the platoon advantage here, but that's never really been a concern for him.
Grichuk has an identical .328 wOBA against left- and right-handed pitching over his career, while he actually has a higher ISO against righties (.243) than lefties (.222).
He boasts a career 38.0% hard-hit rate and 43.2% fly-ball rate against righties, and that power gives him no shortage of upside against Ynoa and his career 36.2% hard-hit and 37.2% fly-ball rates.
Kendrys Morales, 1B, New York Yankees ($2,600)
Nova really seems to be falling off this year. He's not been as bad as his 6.28 ERA might suggest, but his 4.92 SIERA is still a career-worst, and his 14.4% strikeout rate sits only 8.5% higher than his 6.0% walk rate. That's his first time below 11% in strikeout-minus-walk rate since 2015.
Kendrys Morales is not having a good season himself, but this is another case where surface stats don't tell the full story. His .264 wOBA and .059 ISO both suck. But he's also only sporting a .217 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), while he hasn't posted a mark lower than .270 in any of the last four years and has a .291 career-average. Considering he's still making terrific contact (40.7% hard-hits, 11.0% soft-hits), that BABIP is not going to be sustainable. Neither is his 4.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate for that matter, which is down from 17.9% last season and a 15.8% career-average.
Bringing great contact numbers into a soft matchup with Nova positions him well to start improving on the production front tonight.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
Strahm has allowed a career 41.7% fly-ball and 37.7% hard-hit rate (which is up to a 42.3% fly-ball and 47.2% hard-hit rate in 2019), and with the uniquely home run-friendly properties of Coors Field, you just can't afford to give up contact like that in Denver.
Like Morales, Rodgers is not producing well from the dish. We only have a 64 plate appearance sample though, so it's not time to be concerned just yet, especially considering the .438 wOBA and .289 ISO he posted in 152 Triple-A plate appearances.
He's one of the only cheap Rockies bats available tonight, and getting him with the platoon advantage against Strahm makes him an inexpensive way to get some serious upside.
Brock Holt, 2B, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)
The Boston Red Sox are also in the conversation about the top offenses on the slate, as is almost always the case. And like usual, it's not easy to get cheap exposure to the upside they offer.
Brock Holt isn't someone that brings you any power upside, but he's a capable hitter when he gets the platoon advantage. Dating back to 2018 he's turned in a .337 wOBA and .148 ISO over 345 plate appearance against right-handed pitching.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.