FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/16/19
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Each day we will highlight a starter to consider from each pricing tier, and we'll also look at one contrarian play for tournaments. Who should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Priced Option
Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Price: $9,800
We are living in a world where Lance Lynn is the second-most expensive hurler on a 15-game main slate, and I am totally here for it.
Coming out of the All Star break, Lynn picked up right where he left off, dominating the Houston Astros in a seven-inning, zero-run, 11-strikeout performance. What makes Lynn such a great guy to roster is his unreal consistency. If we look at his 10 starts, Lynn has racked up seven or more strikeouts in eight of those contests, pitching at least six innings in every outing.
Lynn's 26.4% strikeout rate this year puts him at the top end of tonight's pitchers, and his 5.5% walk rate keeps runners off base -- adding up to his sparkling 3.82 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). If you're looking to pay up at pitcher, consider Lynn.
Mid-Priced Option
Jordan Yamamoto, Miami Marlins
vs. San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $8,700
To start his big league career, Jordan Yamamoto's game log is a little odd -- he has made five starts, including two outings apiece versus the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. As we know, those are two poor offenses, so is Yamamoto for real?
While he won't light up the radar gun, the right-hander has been a bastion of consistency, averaging 39 FanDuel points over his five outings, recording quality starts three times.
His opponent today helps a bit, too, as the San Diego Padres lead the league with a 26.1% strikeout rate, and Miami's home stadium ranks as the most pitcher-friendly park over the last three years.
Look for Yamamoto to post a big number tonight.
Low-Priced/Contrarian Play
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $7,700
With a 4.64 ERA this year, Jack Flaherty doesn't jump off the page as a great play. But a deeper look reveals there could be some value here with the Cardinals' hurler, especially when you peep Flaherty's noticeable home/road splits in 2019.
| Split | Innings | Plate Appearances | K% | BB% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51.2 | 204 | 28.4% | 4.4% | .279 |
| Road | 45.1 | 202 | 24.3% | 11.4% | .348 |
Across the board, Flaherty has been far better at home -- and by a very wide margin so far. His opponent today, the Pittsburgh Pirates, carries a 3.94 implied total, third-lowest on the slate.
A word of warning -- keep an eye on the weather. It's forecasted to rain all day in St. Louis, but it may clear out by game time. If the weather looks OK, you can peep Flaherty.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
