4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/14/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Daniel Vogelbach To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Dan Vogelbach has plenty of power to hit home runs and is now up against one of the worst pitchers in the league. Is his home run prop a lock tonight?
Last season, Vogelbach had limited time in the Majors with only 37 games, but this season he has over 100, and we are working with a solid sample size. He comes in with a .282 ISO, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and an always threatening 44.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. He is a bit of an old school power-hitting first basemen, always ready to knock one over the fence. His +270 odds to hit a home run tonight has him as the most likely on the Seattle Mariners, and that shouldn't come as a surprise given their matchup tonight.
They are up against MLB journeyman Edwin Jackson, who can't stop and won't stop giving up home runs. Jackson is with his second team this year -- nothing new for him -- and he is allowing a 41.1% hard-hit rate, and a 44.6% fly-ball ratio to lefty hitters this season, all leading to 1.59 home runs per nine innings.
Jorge Soler To Hit a Home Run (+300)
There are clear skies and plenty of sun in St. Louis, but is that enough for some Soler power? Soler power, of course, being Jorge Soler, who is having his best season in his career, with 35 home runs to date.
He is showing to be a reverse-splits hitter, with better numbers against righty pitchers compared to lefties, even as a right-handed hitter. This season, Soler has 29 of his 35 home runs against righty pitchers, which is the spot we find him in tonight. A .323 ISO and 31.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus righty pitchers is no joke and gives him plenty of home run potential any time he sees this matchup.
He is up against Dakota Hudson, who is carrying a surprisingly bad 22.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate this season versus righty hitters. I say surprising since he is mainly a ground-ball pitcher and allows a 37.1% hard-hit rate in this split.
Aaron Nola OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-104)
You could make the argument that Aaron Nola is the best pitcher on the slate, and that's why we should look at his strikeout prop tonight.
Nola had a bit of a rough start to the season but comes in with a 26.5% strikeout rate, which is the best on the slate, along with posting 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings this season. He has a higher strikeout per nine innings this season -- so far -- compared to what he had last season, yet is considered to be having a down year.
Don't buy into that argument -- Nola is still a top-tier pitcher and can show that tonight versus the Chicago Cubs, who are carrying a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the 10th-worst in the league.
There is next to no juice on the over tonight, and in his 36.2 innings pitched since the All-Star break, he has 42 strikeouts. Nola is in form right now and can handle a free-swinging Cubs lineup.
Clayton Kershaw OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-138)
We thought we had Clayton Kershaw starting last night, but he is on this slate in the same spot.
Nothing has changed in terms of this matchup, as Kershaw will still be up against the Miami Marlins, who have a 22.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. That is actually around league average for the season, but that has jumped to 24.3% since the start of July. Kershaw isn't the same pitcher he once was but still has plenty of gas in the tank with a 25.4% strikeout rate this season, which is the third-best on this slate.
We have Kershaw projected to go slightly under the 6.5 strikeouts, but with the Marlins struggling at the plate in the past month or so, the over -- even with some juice -- is looking solid tonight.