MLB Betting Guide: Monday 4/12/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Minnesota -1.5 (+130): 3 Stars out of 5
The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox have both gotten off to good starts offensively, with the Red Sox scoring 58 runs in 9 games compared to 55 runs in 9 games for the Twins. Both offenses have been solid, and the two teams seem evenly matched in this area at least for the moment.
The pitching matchup should be fairly even, as well, with Martin Perez going for the Red Sox against J.A. Happ for the Twins. Perez had a 4.50 ERA and 4.88 FIP in 12 starts last season compared to Happ's 3.47 ERA and 4.57 FIP in 9 starts.
The Twins get the slight edge in the pitching matchup, and the offenses have been even so far this year. Our model likes the Twins to win by a large margin, and we give them a 64.46% chance to cover the runline of 1.5.
San Diego -1.5 (-120): 5 Stars out of 5
The San Diego Padres had a massive offseason and revamped much of their roster, making them one of the main World Series contenders. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to be the worst team in baseball, and Fangraphs projects them to finish with 98 losses, which is their lowest projected total for any team in MLB.
The Padres also get a huge advantage in the pitching matchup with Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish toeing the rubber. Darvish finished last season with a 2.01 ERA and a league-leading 2.23 FIP. He faces Trevor Cahill from the Pirates, who also had a nice season last year with a 3.24 ERA, but he posted a 5.98 ERA in 37 appearances in 2019, so he may be due for a bit of regression in the 2021 season.
The Padres should win this game without much issue, and our model gives them a 67.10% chance to win the game by more than 1 run.
New York Mets -1.5 (+140): 2 Stars out of 5
The New York Mets are off to a slow start this season at 2-3. They have had three games canceled due to COVID, and they had a rainout on Sunday, so they have yet to get into the full swing of the season.
However, Fangraphs projections still love the Mets, and they have them finishing the season with 92 wins, which is the 4th-highest projected win total. The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a hot start this season but are still only projected for 83 total wins.
This pitching matchup should favor the Mets, too, as David Peterson is starting against Chase Anderson. Peterson had a good year last season with a 3.44 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 10 appearances, while Anderson had a 7.22 ERA and 6.16 FIP.
The Mets are the better team, and they get the better end of the pitching matchup. Our model likes the Mets here, giving them a 57.54% chance to cover the runline of 1.5.